Guizhou Province GDP Simulation And Forecast Based On SED Model

The purpose of this study is the SED(social economy dynamic simulation system model)model is applied for 2013 in Guizhou Province macroeconomic simulation and forecast,put forward constructive countermeasures and suggestions to the Guizhou Province the current macroeconomic regulation and control policy for the relevant experts and leaders of reference.The SED model at this stage is a national model,the model input initial micro economic data,you can start running related economic simulation.In the simulation process,people can run the simulation object of various kinds of economic operation situation,which can simulate a real state of microeconomic and macroeconomic.Specifically,the SED model has residents,enterprises,industry,market,banking,securities,government,module.Simulation of tens of thousands of residents,42 industries,each industry has thousands of enterprises,every industry has a specific commodity,each kind of goods at the same time with four different grades,accordingly,42 different commodity markets.The changes of the SED model can simulate the economy every day of the logistics and capital flow and personnel flow.In this paper,on the basis of the above model,and then build a separate provincial government and economic subsystem.Then the historical simulation approach,in input and Guizhou Province in China 2010-2012 three microeconomic data based,using macro and micro integration of SED model,simulation national and Guizhou Province 2010-2012 years of macroeconomic indicators,and thus with the National Bureau of statistics compared model to verify the rationality and objectivity;after completion of the above benchmark validation based on further sed model prediction 2013 main trend of macroeconomic indicators.The full text of the summary,mainly in the following three aspects of the work.1 to build a separate provincial government and economic subsystem.On the basis of the national model,the local government of province is added,that is,the model of the government of Guizhou province.Compared with the national model,the provincial model in addition to without the central bank,the other settings are the same as the national model.Secondly,in the national model based,part of an industry is defined as the provincial enterprise,these enterprises at the provincial level to the local government,namely the Guizhou provincial government pay local taxes,the Guizhou provincial government have the right to enterprises inGuizhou Province regulation of local tax and financial allocation,social welfare and other financial support.Finally,the import and export trade model is added in the provincial model.Because there is no international model,import and export trade data is exogenous variable.The main macroeconomic indicators of 2010-2012 for three years in Guizhou province and the national 2 simulation.Because before teacher Wu Jie has done simulation GDP in Guangdong Province subject,that some of the parameters value,so I on the basis of this,appropriate adjustments for in Guizhou Province Economic Simulation parameters,including equipment attribute value with import and export trade data,repeated adjustments,the output macro data(GDP)for three consecutive years and country,Guizhou statistical yearbook statistical results from 2010 to 2012 errors are less than 5 percent.The change trend of the main macroeconomic indicators in 2013 3 Forecast of China and Guizhou province.Benchmark efficacy to meet the requirements,so that the model to run a year that runs to 2013,national and Guizhou Province,the main economic indicators,including GDP,inflation rate and unemployment rate.In order to relevant experts and leaders can put forward constructive countermeasures and suggestions on the current macroeconomic control policy in Guizhou province.In summary,the SED model is a strictly according to the modern scientific method to establish economic systems engineering,has a perfect assumption axiom system,strict mathematical theories and approach a realistic computer model system;application of SED model for the simulation of economic events in history has a higher accuracy;sed model is applied to the analysis of the current situation of regional economy,and provide solving scheme has higher value.