Inventory Control Of L Company Based On Demand Forecast & Order Commitment

Consumer decision behavior has greatly changed in the present internet era for more accesses to information and distribution channels. For convenient purchasing channels contributing to the high requirement of product timely delivery, it becomes a key factor for the retailer–led supply chain to efficiently organize the whole chain resource and accomplish the timely delivery in present supply chain management. For the above reason, this thesis take a retail chain store company focusing on fast fashion product retail service as an example, and mainly researches on the inventory problem, proposing order commitment strategy to improve company inventory control situation based on the improvement of forecasting accuracy by using exponential smoothing, comprehensive forecasting method.Firstly, through the interview with the practitioners and the literature review, inventory control influence factors is summarized based on the company present operation process, and optimization scheme for the inventory control problem is put forward. The thesis integrates self-adapting moving weighted average method with exponential smooth method for its feature suitable for unstable time series. It is found that the integrated forecast method could improve the forecasting accuracy. Given the forecast accuracy guaranteed, three phases simulation model is constructed to analyses the effects on the inventory control evaluation index of bound parameters, delivery cycle, ordering cycle, proving the order commitment strategy could improve the company inventory situation, decreasing inventory turnover days, improving stock accuracy. Besides, the safety stock changes could greatest influence the inventory compared to other factors, and delivery cycle is least. So, the company should pay attention to set rational safety level in practical operation.