Empirical Research On The Relationship Among Improvised Decision-making Mode, Cognitive Bias And Risk Behavior

In the process of disposing the serious emergencies, the emergency plan always not adapted to the actual situation, so the manager needs to make improvised decision-making according to the real situation timely. In order to make managers' improvised decision-making with high quality and quickly in a state of crisis, it is urgent to do an in-depth study of improvised decision-making process of emergency. The main contents are as the following:First, referring to the relevant literature, the paper found that the cognitive, intuition and psychology of the managers all play important roles in the improvised decision-making process. Based on these, improvised decision-making mode can be divided into three kinds, which are separately based on the RPD, intuition and prospect theory.Second, the managers may cause cognitive bias in the decision-making process because the cognitive, intuition and psychology all belong to the irrational factors. This paper summarized that cognitive biases include status quo bias, framing effect, anchoring effect, overconfidence, representativeness bias and availability bias. It analyzed the interaction among all variables, then proposed research hypotheses, and built the theoretical hypothesis models.Third, the questionnaire was designed and issued to measure the variables scale in the model. The data were collected, which include 219 effective samples. Reliability and validity analysis of questionnaire were tested by using structural equation for confirmatory factor analysis with SPSS22.0 and Amos21.0. The results were significant, which ensured the effectiveness of this study.Fourth, based on the descriptive statistical analysis and regression analysis of the collected data, and test of the hypothesis models, this paper indicates that:The improvised decision-making mode of RPD causes the cognitive biases of status quo bias, overconfidence, representativeness bias and availability bias. The improvised decision-making mode of intuition causes the cognitive biases of status quo bias, framing effect, representativeness bias and availability bias. The improvised decision-making mode of prospect theory causes the cognitive biases of framing effect, anchoring effect and overconfidence. And all of the improvised decision-making modes can affect the decision risk behavior. According to the empirical research on influence mechanism of cognitive bias in improvised decision-making under emergency, we indicates that: Expected revenue partially mediates the relationship between status quo bias, framing effect and decision risk behavior, but completely mediates the relationship between anchoring effect and decision risk behavior; risk-perception completely mediates the relationship between over-confidence, representativeness bias and decision risk behavior, but partially mediates the relationship between availability bias and decision risk behavior.Finally, according to the empirical results, this paper puts forward the corresponding suggestions to improve the effect of managers' improvised decision-making from optimizing improvised decision-making mode and minimizing cognitive bias.