Impacts Of Commercial Housing Investment On City Economic Growth

In recent years,China's economic growth rate is descending,gradually into a"new normal" status with adjusting the speed and optimizing the industrial structure."New normal" is a new judge on the characteristics of China's economic growth and economic development,on the one hand,due to the interplay of soft foreign demand,shrinking domestic demand,and cyclical adjustment of real estate,the growth rate of GDP is continually slowing down;on the other hand,achieving consumer-led economic autonomy which coordinated development becomes an important goal of"new normal".Therefore,transformation of the economic growth pattern is imperative.In this case,the real estate industry,as the main component of investment,attracts numerous attentions of scholars.Some of them claim that we should weaken dependence on real estate while others emphasis its non-negligible effect on economic development as a pillar of fundamental industry of the national economy due to its particularity such as high industrial correlation,special effect of supply and demand,in recent years,the real estate industry has been put in an important position in national economy.So under such new normal circumstances,It's high time to make the transformation of economic growth model and to adjust the development strategy correspondingly.Achieving the goal of long-term efficient and coordinated economic development is of importance to real estate industry.Based on the theoretical research on economic growth and investment theories,this paper theoretically analysis the influential mechanism of commercial housing investment on urban economic growth through the industrial connection effect,exploring the transmission mechanism of commercial housing investment on urban economic growth through the establishment of urban economy four departments model.At the same time,this paper also revealed that the city as the carrier of economy,its size will impact on the effect of investment on economic growth based on the urban development theories and agglomeration economy effect.On the basis of theoretical analysis,this paper applied an empirical study based on the latest dynamic panel data clustering method,error correction model,Granger causality test and multiple linear regressions to the panel data obtained from 35 large and medium-sized cities in-between 1999 and 2012.The empirical study showed that the commercial housing investment has long-term positive contribution to the urban economic growth,but this effect is restricted by urban size,the influence coefficient of second class urban is higher than the first and third class urban because of the urban agglomeration economy effect,while the influence coefficient of labor and technical level to the urban economic growth decrease with urban size reduction.Finally,by comparing the results of the empirical research illustrates the existed problems between commercial housing investment and urban economic development,and then put forward some policy proposals accordingly.