Accounting Earnings, Earnings Quality And Economic Growth

The operation of enterprises cannot do without the macroeconomic,as an external environment of the economic operation,macroeconomic plays an important role to enterprises,investors and government.Forecasting the trends of macroeconomic has been a key and difficult problem for economists.In recent years,China's economic growth slowed down,GDP growth rates have been blow 8%for many years since 2012,in the year 2015,the government work report even set the economic growth target at around 7%.At the same time,the performance of the companies was falling,the news of business failures is frequently reported,all the signs indicate that the relationship between macroeconomic and micro-enterprise is close.However,the stock market's role of barometer is inconclusive,and the impact of enterprises' accounting information,especially the earnings information,on macro-economic needs further research.So this paper research the correlation between the listed companies' accounting earnings and the future economic growth,and study whether the correlation can be affected by earnings quality,with using empirical research methods on the basis of the quarterly data on listing corporation and macroeconomics.The main conclusions of this paper are indicated as follows.Firstly,in the same period,there was a significant positive correlation between enterprise accounting earnings and economic growth,and between aggregate earnings and economic growth.For the question that micro-enterprises' performance can't reflect the macroeconomic growth in China,this article test the correlation between accounting earnings and economic growth from the micro and macro perspectives,both the results show that the correlation is positive,and departing doesn't exist.Secondly,aggregate earnings positively correlated with the economic growth in the coming quarter.Aggregate earnings has predictive content for subsequent economic growth,and the predictive content of our index of aggregate earnings is incremental to that of stock market returns and leading index.Granger test also shows changes in aggregate earnings precedes changes in economic growth,is the cause of economic growth.Finally,the earnings quality really impact the correlation between the aggregate earnings and future economic growth.The positive correlation between the aggregate accounting earnings and future economic growth is partly due to the sustainability of the aggregate earnings.And a higher level of cash guarantee for the earnings doesn't result in a better positive correlation between aggregate earnings and future economic growth.