Study On Credit Risk And Spreads Of Chinese City Investment Bond

Following the emergence of the first 2014 bond default interest only after 2015 to 2016 within the course of the year,the bond market is more frequent credit event.The occurrence of a credit event of bonds,are more concentrated in private industry category.Some bonds in the event of material breach few months later,by the local government to actively coordinate and cooperate fully with the final completion of principal and interest of the bank to deal with,but some bond investors have yet to return the principal and interest due.To stimulate economic growth in recent years,the central bank has been taking a moderately loose monetary policy and lower interest rates in due course.This presented a lot of money chasing a small amount of assets of the scene,is what we call asset shortage.Investors seek higher-yielding assets on the one hand,on the other hand also to polish his eyes to guard against bond defaults.At this time,the capital market for a class of higher income and credit-linked with the government's new bond products-the city voted bonds became the focus of the market.In fact,in recent years,the city voted bonds is not a fresh product,as early as 1993,Shanghai has issued corporate bonds to raise funds for the city's first building.Only because the issue is too small,coupled with the prevailing bond market is immature,it has not attracted investor attention.But as the global financial crisis in 2008,the Chinese government has taken in response to the crisis 4 trillion fiscal stimulus.Local governments have to respond,began to develop local infrastructure.However,the tax system and forced the provisions of the "Budget Law",the local government can not direct debt financing.In order to circumvent regulatory requirements UDIC education should be born.This paper will be China city to vote bonds background and historical development do meticulous combing.Will draw foreign scholars for research of municipal bonds,the city voted bonds is determined whether the Chinese-style municipal bonds,and to start with the analysis and comparison between local government bonds from the difference between the various elements of the bond.The fourth and fifth part of the core of the whole thesis.The fourth chapter focuses on the source of the credit risk of the city to vote bonds to help readers understand the risks.Local governments can not alone guarantee that a stealth ignored the dangers are,blind investment.The fourth chapter from the local government risk,the risk of issuers and credit rating risk to start this three-part,for the city to vote bonds set special conditions,one by one analysis.Covering the city to vote may lead to debt default risk points.The fifth chapter and the fourth chapter echoed around,empirical verification multivariate regression model,the three aspects from macroeconomic factors,microeconomic factors and the factors of its own bonds,the city voted bonds identifythe impact of the first day of issue of the interest rate with the same term risk-free rate credit spreads between,and integration of economic common sense and time,the role of these factors affect the extent and direction of action will be explained.The last chapter summarizes the paper part of the proposed research and innovation where the shortcomings,to make reasonable suggestions to China's bond market and the city voted to run,and pave the way for future study.