The Study Of Factors And Volatility Of The Rmb Against The US Dollar Exchange Rate

In the current environment of economic openness as core variables of a country’s economy,the exchange rate volatility of the national economy will have significant and far-reaching impact.In 2005,China carried out the reform of the exchange rate,then the pressure of RMB appreciation has suffered,statistics show that there are about 30%appreciation.Such appreciation has brought tremendous impact to our economy,internal and external balance is also facing unprecedented challenges.In 2010,on the formation mechanism of the RMB exchange rate has a new initiative to further deepen the reform of the RMB exchange rate floating range again expanded.The move shows that China will speed up the process of the RMB exchange rate market.In this case,the factors affecting the RMB exchange rate volatility analysis and its research is more important,but also has important practical significance for the development of a stable exchange rate and exchange rate-related policies.In this paper,the RMB exchange rate to be divided into two parts,the first part of the use of multiple regression model to analyze the factors,with the second part of the volatility time series models do empirical analysis.First,the article reviews some of the important factors that affect the outcome of scholars in the RMB exchange rate and exchange rate volatility made,the simple exposition of the theory of exchange rates,laid the theoretical foundation for the following empirical research and analysis.Secondly,the reform process of China’s exchange rate system were reviewed,and a brief analysis of the various reform movements during the RMB exchange rate.Finally,the article to multiple linear regression method and ARMA and GARCH model as a tool to select the 2005-2014 RMB exchange rate factors affecting data and RMB against the US dollar exchange rate for the sample daily impact on the RMB exchange rate factors and Fluctuation of empirical points,and gives some suggestions.