The Study Of Influence Factors Of Agriculture Listed Company's Share Price Volatility Sustainability

Since 2008,our country stock market slump,many stocks in Chinese stock market share price of serious deviation from the real value of the listed companies.On the one hand,the listed company in its interests to false disclosure of information,this is not only conducive to the healthy development of Chinese stock market,but also not conducive to form a good investment environment;On the other hand,investors are not good at reasonable analysis disclosed information of the listed company,and they blindly invest and follow suit.For agriculture listed company,it can be smoothly financing from the stock market is crucial to its development.Agricultural listed companies has its unique characteristics of the industry,these features can also partly reflected in the stock market,as a result,stock price volatility of agricultural listed companies will have a certain industry characteristics.For the investors of agricultural listed companies,they pursue the maximization of self-interest,but how to choose a good stock to invest is an important problem for the shareholders;For agricultural listed companies themselves,they also hope to get more investors to invest,how to legal,reasonable and effective to guide investors,this is an another important problem;For the regulators of agricultural listed companies,how to effectively supervise and manage the operation of the stock market,is also a difficult problem.In this paper,combined with the actual situation of our country stock market,to research the stock price volatility persistence in our country agricultural listed companies,try to answer the three above questions.In this paper,starting from the literature review,summarize the results of relevant studies,on this basis,the agricultural listed companies as the study object,first of all,the theoretical study of stock price volatility,theoretical study concluded as follows:Regardless of China's stock market is fully effective,and regardless of what stocks with investment risk,it have a certain degree of correlation between disclosed accounting information and stock prices of agricultural listed companies,and interim report information is better reflect the agricultural business circumstance of listed companies,thus it is a more direct impact on the stock price volatility.Secondly,the article collect four categories 12 accounting indicator data of 2008-2013 agricultural listed companies,and the corresponding stock price information of listed companies,using the non-parametric survival analysis models and semi-parametric model to do empirical research agricultural listed company's share price volatility persistence.Among them,the non-parametric model for the study concluded that:One day after the disclosed quarterly report of agriculture listed companies,the investment value of the stock price which performs rising is higher than the stock price which performs falling,"buy rising and not to buy falling" investment concept is more rational.The research findings based on semi-parametric model are as follows:(1)After the quarter reports disclosed,for the stock price rising sample,the ability of development and long-term solvency of the agricultural listed companies play a protective role in persistence of stock prices rising,and question the truthfulness of asset-liability ratio index;(2)After the quarter reports disclosed,for the stock price falling sample,asset-liability ratio and inventory turnover rate play a protective effect,but the accounts receivable turnover and total assets turnover play a blocking effect.It also suggests that the debt paying ability and operation ability of agricultural listed company have a certain impact on stock prices fluctuation sustainability.(3)The profitability accounting data have no significant effect on stock prices fluctuations sustainability.On the final of the empirical analysis,we do the further study for the no significant indicators,the research shows that:have no significant impact on share price rising;however,they have obvious effects on sustainability of share price falling,and if profitability and short-term debt paying ability is weaker,the longer the duration of the share price falling.Finally,based on the theoretical part and empirical part research findings,policy recommendations are proposed for agricultural listed company's investors,managers and supervisors,and put forward the prospects the further research direction of the article.