The Research On The Main Effective Factors Of The Shanghai A-share Market Volatility

In these years,Chinese stock market has been developing,which has a great impact on our national economy.In particular,the volatility of stock price,whether it is the effective monitoring of the market regulators,or the investors on the risk and income of the system analysis,has a very important significance.According to the stock's volatility,to analyze the causes of the fluctuations,it can provide an effective reference for the supervision of the regulators and investors to invest in the daily production and business activities of the listing corporation.From the logical structure point of view,this article can be divided into four parts.First part is introduction part,described has paper of research background and research meaning,and pointed out that paper of may exists of innovation and appeared of insufficient of at;second part main through introduced both at home and abroad of literature reviewed,preliminary analysis has may effect stock fluctuations of main factors;third part detailed analysis has stock fluctuations of main factors,specific including macroeconomic factors,and securities market factors and trading behavior factors,,and through data analysis,building model,obtained results;IV part,Draws conclusions and propose appropriate policy recommendations.In the course of research,this paper uses a combination of theoretical and empirical analysis.In reference predecessors research experience of based Shang,collection has January 2011 to December 2015 of index,and turnover,and GDP growth,and foreign trade,data,building has habitual using of EViews linear return model and for has test,eventually obtained has following empirical conclusion and made has detailed of explained:first,macroeconomic on stock and no significantly of effect,through model analysis out social consumer total and import and export net amount on stock of effect does not significantly.Second,macroeconomic policies,especially monetary policies at different stages has a significant impact on the stock market,with a typical policy features.Third,relative to mature market,China's stock market fluctuations are more frequent and intense,direct cause the formation of abnormal fluctuation are from some of the information appearing on the market.As to why some unconfirmed information has great implications for the market,because the majority of investors on the one hand there was no scientific method for rational investment,that is psychological,cognitive bias in the medium and small investors.The other hand is where information gaps exist in our country is not perfect.Based on the empirical results,the paper concludes with some practical policy recommendations.First need rational of policy intervention,management layer as take indirect of regulation management mode,guide market internal of supply and demmand balance,strengthening on stock market of system construction;second is strengthening on information disclosure of perfect and supervision,only constantly of perfect market of information disclosure system,to investors create a fair just of investment environment,established up a fast of,and effective of litigation system,to guide stock of real value return,makes stock better of service Yu entity economic;Finally is to strengthen the dominance of institutional investors in the market,and guide rational investment investors,regulating their investment behavior,to stabilize the market.