Analysis Of The Impact Of International Crucde Oil And Coal Price Fluctuatiorn On Domestic Energy Price

Energy is a country and the world economic development power,crude oil and coal price fluctuations directly affect the domestic economic development situation.In recent years,by the international financial markets and other factors,the impact of crude oil,coal prices are very volatile.Crude oil,coal and other resources of the country,in the crude oil and coal prices fell sharply,the domestic economic and financial situation has received a very serious impact.Although the economic development of our country has been in a relatively stable state,but with China’s accession to the World Trade Organization(WTO),and the international economic and trade activities more closely,the domestic energy prices affected by international crude oil price of coal is also growing.With the rapid development of domestic economy,domestic demand for energy increases rapidly,in terms of the factors of social stability and the smooth operation of the domestic economy and international political status based on;Especially has greatly increased the annual import volume of crude oil;the external dependence is also growing;effects of international crude oil and coal price fluctuations on domestic energy prices and the economy is more and more big.Therefore,it is important to pay attention to the stability of domestic energy price,adjust the price,the development of national economy and the stability of the political status of international power.In this context,we need to pay attention to the impact of crude oil and coal price fluctuations on domestic energy prices and other aspects of the size of the characteristics of other aspects.In view of the impact of crude oil and coal price fluctuations to determine the specific coping strategies,and actively explore measures to deal with energy price fluctuations.To maintain domestic energy prices stable,while enhancing the ability against the risk of domestic crude oil and coal price fluctuations,to promote the development of stable domestic crude oil and coal and related industries and the national economy healthy and steady.This paper reviews the research of scholars at home and abroad for crude oil and coal price fluctuation;first analysis theory,the futures price volatility theory,price fluctuation of domestic crude oil futures and coal price fluctuation causes the international crude oil and coal futures market price formation.Followed by the analysis of the international crude oil coal futures prices on the domestic energy price transmission path and the transmission path of crude oil coal import prices on domestic energy prices.At last,based on the theoretical analysis of the transmission mechanism,the empirical analysis is conducted.The investigation of international energy prices on the impact of domestic energy prices,the main use of descriptive statistical analysis,vector autoregressive model(VAR),impulse response analysis and variance decomposition analysis;from 2006 June to 2015 December(a total of 115 sets of data)the impact of international crude oil and coal futures prices on the overall domestic energy price index.The impact of domestic crude oil prices on the domestic coal imports overall energy price index;and comparison between them.The results show that the energy price fluctuations in domestic has relatively large inertia,the current price fluctuation magnitude is affected by the historical price,its price volatility is mainly due to fluctuations in energy prices at home;effects of price shocks on future price lasts longer;the international crude oil futures prices of domestic and imported coal prices in short-term impact on domestic energy prices is relatively small;the international crude oil futures prices and import prices in the longer time of domestic energy price volatility is relatively large contribution;but the international coal futures price and the price of imports has relatively small contribution.It gives some suggestions according to the conclusion.Firstly,China should actively promote the establishment of energy futures market,so domestic energy prices and the world market;secondly the government can gradually liberalized domestic energy pricing mechanism should be established again;energy reserve system;finally,vigorously promote the development of long-term support for new energy and energy saving strategy industry to increase the proportion of energy consumption.The innovation of this paper is the comprehensive analysis of influence between crude oil futures prices of domestic and international coal import price for the domestic price level and the differences between the them;the lag effect impact effect in the level of monthly price fluctuation and duration in the monthly time span under the impact of the price fluctuation.