A Study On The Motivation Of Short Term International Capital Flows In China

With the continuous development of global economic and financial integration,the flow of capital has become more and more frequent throughout the world.The development of science and technology has enabled the capital to realize cross-border transfer in a short time,and the capital gradually show the characteristics of the short term.In recent years,with the Fed exit quantitative easing policy and open interest rate cycle,the RMB is facing devaluation pressure,China's capital outflows are obvious,including large amount of short-term international capital outflows.Whether the inflow or outflow of short-term international capital will make a serious negative impact on the stable development of China's economy.In this context,it is of great significance to explore the influencing factors of the short-term international capital flows in China.Based on the classical motivation theory and domestic and foreign scholars research results of short-term international capital,this paper select the interest rate market and foreign exchange market and the stock market,real estate market,risk aversion and the rate of economic growth as the main research direction.Selecting the appropriate indicators from the selected indicators during the 2003.1-2016.8 monthly data as sample data.After the preliminary analysis of the data,this paper adopts the method of quantitative analysis to do empirical research,based on the VAR model and the TVP-VAR model,and analyzes the main factors influencing China's short-term international capital flows in the light of China's actual economic situation factor..The conclusions are as follows:the empirical research by constructing a VAR model,obtained the expected appreciation of the RMB,China-US interest rate and stock market returns are the main factors which affect China's short-term international capital flows,the variance decomposition results show that the expected appreciation of RMB is the most important factors.We choose these three main factors to construct the four-variable TVP-VAR model.The empirical results show that the impact of RMB appreciation on short-term international capital has obvious time-varying characteristics,and the time-varying effect of China-US interest rate and stock market return is not obvious.The withdrawal of quantitative easing policy of the United States has a significant impact on China's short-term international capital flows,amplifying the pulse response of short-term international capital to the selected indicators.In the future,opening up is the general trend,the barrier which prevent China'sshort-term capital flow will be gradually removed.The opening of the capital account should follow the step-by-step process,the opening process should not be too fast,our country should perfect the management of short-term international capital flow from the perspective of macro-prudence,enhance coordination of macroeconomic policies and management tools and prevent the impact of short-term international capital on China's economic and financial System.