County-level Government Debt Risk Management Research

In recent years,with the continuous expansion of infrastructure construction and serious long debt phenomenon,government fiscal pressure is increasing,causing the local government debt risk.It is urgent to research the risk of local government debt and figure out how to control the risk.Provincial government is in the central position,as the subject of local borrowing,but also the key to solve the problem of local government debt risk.Therefore,this paper takes provincial government as the angle of view,and takes Yunnan Province as a case to study the risk management mechanism of local government debt.This paper adopts the method of combining normative analysis with case analysis,and follows the basic idea of "asking questions-analyzing problems-solving problems" on the whole.First of all,on the basis of the existing research,defines the concept of local government debt and the debt risk,and sort out the fiscal decentralization theory,incentive theory,debt risk management theory,as the theoretical basis of the study;then,taking Yunnan Province as an example,from the point of provincial government,analyzes the causes of local government debt risk,according to the debt scale debt structure and debt management,by using AHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to make quantitative evaluation of Yunnan local government debt risk level;finally,learn from foreign government debt risk management experience,put forward Yunnan province local government debt risk management suggestions.This paper argues that in the state of the local government debt management and under the guidance of Yunnan province local government debt development also presents new characteristics,but also has the scale of risk,structural risk,risk management and project risk.The main reason is that the financial system is irrational,the absence of local government debt management,economic development and fiscal policy restrictions,government behavior restrictions and constraints.The local government debt risk assessment based on the provincial level,further validation of the current local government debt risk level of Yunnan province is still in general,but controlled stage,the relevant departments should be vigilant,to prevent further aggravated the debt risk.Therefore,suggestions to improve the local government debt risk management mechanism,improve the management of local government debt,improve the ability of local government investment and financing initiatives,make up for the defects of debt borrowing.