The Influence Of The Federal Reserve To Raise Interest Rates On China's Output

In 2015,The U.S.monetary policy generated new change by ending up the six years unconventional monetary policy.On December 16,the Federal Reserve announced his retirement from zero interest rate policy by raising benchmark interest rates by 0.25%for a new round of raising interest rates.One year later,on December 15,2016,the Federal Reserve raised benchmark interest rates by 0.25% again.In the future,as the economy improved further,The federal reserve will continue to raised benchmark interest rates.In 2017,the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates for three times.With the speeding up of reform of interest rate and exchange rate reform in our country,the domestic capital market step by step with the world capital market,the change of international market and the influence of the main national monetary policy has become influenced our domestic financial market more and more acutely.China's trade with the United States is close,the spillover effect of raising interest rates will influence China's economy rapidly in every aspects.This paper mainly studies the impact of the Fed to raise interest rates to China's economic output,interest rates,exchange rates as intermediate targets,with trade channels,interest rate channel and assets price channel as the main research approaches.it is concluded that the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates will affect China's economic output,but the impact extent is limited.This article is divided into five chapters.The first chapter is about the developing course and reason for the fed to raise interest rates,including the history of the fed raising interest rates,the expectation of QE policy exiting from the United States,the United States economic indicators recovery,the dollar maintenance needs,the capital flow to improve the interests of the state four aspects.The second chapter is the theory analysis.Mainly from China's economic development and the actual monetary policy perspective,in the traditional basis standard Mundell-Fleming model extension,formed in accordance with the theoretical basis of Chinese actual situation.The third chapter analyzes the fed raising interest rates through the monetary policy transmission mechanism to influence China's output.The main transmission channels from the exchange rate,interest rate transmission channel and assets price channel three aspects to carry on the analysis,andit is concluded that the negative impact of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates to Chinese output is limited.The fourth chapter is the empirical analysis part of this article.To set the model,and the data processing,the main use of impulse response function for the fed to raise interest rates for China interest rate,the influence of the real effective exchange rate and output for empirical analysis.The fifth chapter is about policy recommendations,including the central bank cutting interest rates further,strengthening the supervision of the international hot money,putting forward suggestion to promote the internationalization of RMB.