Research On Credit Risk Assessment Of High-tech Enterprises Based On Dynamic Cash Flow

High-tech enterprises continue to increase,having an important contribution to economic development,but the corresponding assessment method of credit risk is relatively backward.High-tech enterprises as an emerging industry,however,different from traditional enterprises,they are short in the mortgage of fixed assets.And they have the characteristics of high risk and high income;Even if the book value is profit,the high-tech enterprises are likely to face a lot of financial crisis because of the negative cash flow.Therefore,the banks should pay attention to the research of credit risk of the high and new technology enterprises,especially from the perspective of dynamic cash flow for targeted analysis.Based on the analysis of the current situation of credit risk assessment of high-tech enterprises,this paper establishes the relevant index system and evaluation model from the perspective of dynamic cash flow.In the empirical analysis,this article selects 30 high and new technology enterprises with data collected from 2012 to 2016 to forecast the next 12 years(2017-2028)financial data,fully demonstrating dynamic cash flow of the high and new technology enterprises from 2012 to 2028.In the process of credit risk assessment of high and new technology enterprises,this paper uses the dynamic discount cash flow model and KMV model,and uses MATLAB programming for calculation of batch.In the end,we will get the result of defaults rate of 30 high and new technology enterprises in 2017,and then distinguish the high default rate of enterprises,the medium default rate of enterprises and the low default rate of enterprises.In view of the circumstances,this paper puts forward the corresponding suggestions.The conclusion of this paper:(1)The main problem of credit risk assessment of high-tech enterprises is the lack of relatively detailed and targeted models.The model based on dynamic cash flow is suitable for the credit risk assessment of high-tech enterprises.The default situation predicted by this model is basically the same as the real situation.(2)The evaluation method chosen in this paper is able to identify companies with high default rates and predict companies with medium default rates that turn into high default rates,so that banks can be vigilant.(3)Enterprises of high default rate are generally ST enterprises.For such enterprises,measures should be taken by the banks,enterprises themselves and regulators respectively.For medium-default enterprises,it should be from three different directions of the high default rate conversion,low default rate conversion and the medium default rate to take different measures.For low-default enterprises,it should be dealt with in three different directions of the high default rate conversion,medium default rate conversion and the low default rate.In summary,this paper based on the dynamic cash flow for credit risk assessment of high-tech enterprise strengthens the credit risk management and optimizes the existing model of credit risk management.It helps banks effectively improve the system of risk assessment and resolve the possible risks.