Empirical Research On Credit Herd Behavior Of Commercial Banks And Its Impact On Output

Herd behavior refers to the individual is influenced by others' investment strategy and take the same investment strategy with others.Herd behavior in the credit market refers to a commercial bank is influenced by other commercial banks and makes loans in the same industry or the same type of enterprises,namely imitates other commercial banks' lending.Imitation between commercial banks in the credit market will increase the amount of loans to a certain industry,resulting in excessive concentration of credit in the industry.Excessive credit concentration is not conducive to the healthy development of the economy.This paper researches the existence of credit herd behavior in China and the impact of credit herd behavior on output,specific research and its main conclusions are as follows:1.Based on the quarterly loans data of commercial banks in China,we use CCK method to examine whether there exists herd behavior in the whole credit market.The result shows that there does not exist herd behavior in the whole credit market.2.Based on the annual loans data of China's commercial banks in various industry,this paper employs vector autoregression method to test the existence of credit herd behavior in each industry.The main empirical conclusions are as follows:First,the state-owned banks imitate each other's loan behavior in the construction industry;Second,in the transportation,warehouse and postal services industry,there exists credit herd behavior in both state-owned banks and joint-stock banks;Third,in the wholesale and retail industry,the loan behavior of state-owned banks,joint-stock banks and city commercial banks are all influenced by GDP of this industry,the competition between city commercial banks and state-owned banks is stronger than that between joint-stock banks and state-owned banks.3.Through constructing the credit herd behavior indexes,this paper researches the impact of credit herd behavior on output in China.The empirical results are:the impact of credit herd behavior on output changes over time.The impact of credit herd behavior on output changes from promoting the growth of output to hindering the growth of output.Moreover,the effect of hindering output is stronger than that of promoting output.At the end of the article,we put forward some suggestions on weakening credit herd behavior on the basis of information asymmetry and reputation.