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The Research On Exchange Rate Pass-through Based On An Open Economy New Keynesian Hybrid Phillips Curve Of China

Posted on:2017-09-13Degree:MasterType:Thesis
Country:ChinaCandidate:J Y QiuFull Text:PDF
GTID:2359330512950351Subject:Finance
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Since 21st century,along with China's economic growth is changed from fast to slow,the inflation has been in fluctuation state.The exchange rate began to increase steadily and the international commodity price continued to rise,due to the exchange rate system was no longer to keep its currency peg to the dollar.Based on these macroeconomic influence factors,our CPI began to rise rapidly.But with the global financial crisis,CPI rapidly declined because of the slowdown of the global economic growth and the exchange of the RMB.Even in November 2009,CPI appeared the negative growth state.And then CPI began to callback,its year-on-year rate reached the maximum 6.5%in July 2011.After the second half of 2013,CPI has been remained between 1%-2%due to our economic restructuring.However,in the same time,the factor price such as agricultural products and land cost facing high pressure and the implementation of the loose monetary policy in developed countries,which makes the inflation pressure still need us to analyze carefully.This article mainly uses the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips curve(HNKPC)to research the characteristics of inflation.It includes inflation expectations,high order inflation inertia,output gap and exchange rate,which makes the more comprehensive about the inflation.the first part introduces the research background and significance,journals reviewed,domestic and foreign present research situation and possible innovations simply;the second part reviews the development of Phillips curve and derive the HNKPC under the open economic conditions;the third part uses the selected data to empirical test.Based on the empirical analysis,we make use of GMM model to fit China's inflation.And then compare with other forms of Phillips curve.The fourth part sets up a model which contains lagged exchange rate to test the transfer effect of exchange rate.Next we use the Calman filter to examine the impact of external factors on China's inflation,whether the effect of the exchange rate has changed.Finally we explain the impact of macroeconomic variables on inflation depends on SVAR model;the fifth part according to the empirical results of this article,we summarize and propose the corresponding policy proposal to solve the problem of inflation.The research shows that the most important thing is to guide and manage public expectation when we manage our inflation.Beyond that,we still need to strengthen central-bank independence and keep the RMB currency stable.
Keywords/Search Tags:Inflation, Open Economic, HNKPC Model, Exchange Rate Pass-through Effect
PDF Full Text Request
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