Impact Of FTZ, Trade Development And Capital Flows

Along with the reform into the deep water area,to build a safe and efficient open economic system is a new round of reform and opening up the strategic target,which means that the Chinese mode of economic development should shift from exportoriented economy to the open economy system.The establishment of the Shanghai free trade experimentation area(referred to as the free trade zone)is in order to comply with the requirements of this development and the major layout of the active.Its main task is to explore new paths and new modes of reform and opening up,promote the transformation of the government system and the mechanism of the mode of economic growth,promote the optimization and upgrading of economic structure,to achieve better development,promote reform and innovation,to form a copy can be extended experience,service development of the country.In addition,the FTA is to achieve "The Belt and Road" strategy and response to TPP as the representative of a new round of Global trade negotiations and rules pilot an important carrier and platform.It is worth noting that the FTA is a very important aspect of financial reform as the breakthrough point,to institutional innovation as a breakthrough to promote trade facilitation.Such institutional arrangements may make capital and other related elements of the flow of a substantial increase,and thus the process of opening the capital account has an impact.The establishment of Shanghai Free Trade Experimental Zone(hereinafter referred to as FTZ)as the extremely important policy experiment to promote the reform and opening up,what is its performance and related effects of system innovation has been the very time that urgent to summarize and assess carefully.Based on this.Firstly,this paper analyzes the trade in goods import and export to the different impact of the establishment of FTZ,and further from the point of view of capital flows,the use of fuzzy regression discontinuity design and expansion of the nonlinear double difference model,and empirically examines the influence of capital flow in Shanghai with the foundation of FTZ in the sample period.We got the following conclusions:(1)FTZ establishment has a significant positive impact on the import of goods trade,but exports of goods trade is not significant,that is,the establishment of free trade zone has a significant negative impact on the net exports of goods trade.(2)based on the research of fuzzy breakpoint regression design and nonlinear double difference model,it is found that the establishment of free trade zonehas a significant positive effect on the capital flow in Shanghai area.Decreased entrepreneur confidence will lead to an increase in capital outflows,and the FTZ has a certain extent impact.(3)Business confidence has significant negative impact on capital flows,but this effect is not achieved by the FTZ channels.(4)Based on the investigation of non-parametric estimation for different width case,it shows that the benchmark result of marking variables is very steady.Meanwhile,in order to exclude the particularity of Guangdong,Tianjin,Fujian etc,we made a re-test by using the way of eliminating and extending the sample period to further verifies the accuracy of the foregoing conclusions.