A Study On The Rationality Of Earnings Forecast In The Enterprise Value Appraisal Of Earnings Method

Chinese valuation industry has gradually developed into an indispensable basic intermediary industry in the market economy,playing an increasingly important role in regulating capital operation,maintaining economic order and promoting economic development.The industry is growing rapidly,in 20 years of time,it complete the development which other countries used more than 100 years.In the process of evaluation industry rapid development in our country,the industry appears all sorts of problems,such as low malignant competition,providing false assessment and so on.The quality of the assessment report is face of a big test.Asset appraisal is very important in the enterprise merger,acquisition and reorganization.The status of the income method in enterprise value assessment in China gradually improved.Existing research is generally believed that the phenomenon existing in the assessment of enterprise value evaluation of value on the high side.But valuation industry has its particularity,the rationality of the assets appraisal value standard is difficult to unity,the existing empirical research on the rationality of evaluation index of the enterprise limited to the use of assessment,hence.Based on the 2012-2015 in Shenzhen and Shanghai stock exchange listed company public disclosure of the evaluation shows that as the research sample.This paper analyzes the deviation of the forecast value and the actual result in the evaluation statement,studies the rationality of the profit forecast in the enterprise value evaluation under the income method,and makes a reasonable prediction of the earnings impact of the listed company,and analyzes the influence factors of affect the assessment of enterprise value rationality.The results show that:(1)In the first year,most samples' net profit target actual value exceeds the forecast value,most sampless' operating income,operating costs,sales expenses,management costs,income tax expense forecast higher than the actual value;the second year,most samples' net profit,operating income,operating costs,sales costs,management fees,income tax expense indicators show high predictive value.In addition to financial costs and asset impairment losses,the actual values for the first and second years of the other financial measures studied in this paper are likely to be 50% to 150% of the predicted value.(2)The proportion of the net profit of the enterprise is negatively related to the proportion of the asset impairment loss,which is positively related to the ratio of the management expenses and the number of years of the company's establishment.(3)The establishment of a number of years in 1 to 5 years and the establishment of more than 15 years in the proportion of enterprises over-estimated phenomenon.(4)Samples whose net profit index actual accomplished have better profitability,total assets management condition,enterprise development ability than those samples whose net profit index actual unrealized.(5)The rationality of the results of the assessment are different between different industries.It is hard to predict the macroeconomic situation when the appraiser predict the future industry development trend,these lead to differences between actual situation and predicted industry development.(6)The actual performance of the appraised units in the first half of the assessment is better,and the evaluation units in the second half of the evaluation date are more likely to overestimate the profitability of the enterprises.Evaluation of the benchmark date for the December 31 project,the profitability of an enterprise in the next year may be overvalued.(7)There is no obvious correlation between the comprehensive strength of the evaluation institution and the rationality of the earnings forecast in the evaluation results.There are three main innovations in this paper: one is the innovation of research methods.In this paper,the enterprise value of the income approach financial indicators predicted value and the actual completion of the proportional relationship to study the current valuation of the enterprise income method earnings forecast reflects the reality,which from a more detailed perspective of a reasonable forecast of earnings results.The second is the innovation of the research angle.In this paper,according to the importance of the net profit index,the paper studies the reasonableness of the index and breaks through the situation that the appraising rate is only used to judge the rationality of the evaluation,which provides a new direction for the evaluation index of our country.The third part is the innovation of the research content.This paper analyzes the influence of various factors such as actual accomplishment of financial indicators,the years of establishment,the month of evaluation,the comprehensive strength of the evaluation institution and the industry,and analyzes the influence of various factors on the profit forecasting of the evaluation results,so we can provide guidance and advice to improve the quality of evaluation practice.