Research On The Development Of Agricultural Mechanization In Zhejiang Province

Agricultural mechanization refers to the process that the human’s physical labor and animal labor is replaced by mechanical,which is an enormous system affected by many factors that share complex relations.In the process of agricultural mechanization,in order to evaluate the role of agricultural mechanization,we should correctly understand the current stage of agricultural mechanization,thus we should establish a scientific system of agricultural mechanization.In view of the differences of agricultural development model between South and North,the index to evaluate comprehensive agricultural mechanization should be used differently.Therefore,in order to promote the sustainable development of agricultural mechanization in Zhejiang Province,to raise agricultural mechanization level in Zhejiang province from the intermediate stage to the advanced stage,it is essential to look for an evaluation index system that is suitable for the agricultural development mode in Zhejiang province and makes agricultural mechanization play an active role in agricultural production and drive the enthusiasm of farmers.A scientific evaluation index system of agricultural mechanization is of great importance to the development of agricultural mechanization both practically and theoretically.This paper analyzes the present situation of agricultural machinery development in Zhejiang province from various aspects,and reveals some factors that affect the development of agricultural mechanization.It will depict the real situation of agricultural machinery management in Zhejiang province in terms of the date and diagrams on the development of agricultural machinery and equipment,the development of agricultural machinery,and the development of the service system of agricultural mechanization.The index system was analyzed,and the comprehensive evaluation was carried out by using multi index,and the collected annual data of Zhejiang province’s statistical yearbook.The comprehensive level of Agricultural Mechanization in Zhejiang province in 2009-2013 was obtained by using the weighted index method..The comprehensive level of agricultural mechanization is obtained by using the same method in Zhejiang province’s 11 prefecture-level cities.By comparing the agricultural mechanization level,agricultural mechanization level and benefit level in these 11 cities with the comprehensive level in Zhejiang province,the best city is Ningbo City and the worst is Lishui City,while Huzhou city is of the most rapid development.The fitting error of using multiple forecasting models,mainly the time series trend model and grey dynamic model,to predict the expected results of "Twelfth Five Year" plan in Zhejiang province and its 11 cities,,is less than 2%,which is small,so the forecast value is credible.The forecast value on agricultural mechanization in Zhejiang province and its 11 prefecture-level cities in year 2014 and 2015 can be predicted by using DPS software on the date during the year 2009 and 2013.The prediction of the comprehensive level of agricultural mechanization in 2015 is 68.23%.During the period of advancing twelfth five year plan,the overall level of Agricultural Mechanization in Zhejiang province is about 5%and during which,Lishui City still stays at a comparable low level of agricultural mechanization while Ningbo has reached the advanced stage and the gap between the two will become increasingly greater.This article helps us to understand the current situation of agricultural development and its advantages and disadvantages in Zhejiang Province by the analysis of the current level of Agricultural Mechanization.The prediction of the comprehensive level of Agricultural Mechanization provides us the knowledge about the agricultural development trend in Zhejiang Province,which can promote the development of agricultural machinery in Zhejiang province.