The Three Margins In China Automotive Export And Its Determining Factors

In recent years,China's export has decreased because of stagnant international market.This has a bad effect on economy in China,so,promoting foreign trade to a good direction is very important to keep smooth running,upgrading and development on economy.Automotive export as one part of our trade export is unlimited potential to promote export increase.Meanwhile,automotive industry is one important pillar industry of our national economy,and it is a main carrier to target in the "Made-in China 2025 Plan".Automotive industry has long industry chain,high relevancy and strong driving force,and it has large motive force for national economy.The status of automotive industry reflects the status of manufacturing industry in the world,so,it has large influence.Therefore,it is very important to promote automotive export for economy development in a long term.From 2001,China's automotive export went through in high-speed,but,in the existing literature,little has been done in studying the increase of China's automotive export.So,from a long time,it has important practical significance to study the growth of China's automotive export.From the point of development in international trade,from 2003,Melitz proposed that heterogeneous firm's intra-industry trade model divided trade flow into intensive margin and extensive margin.Intensive margin and extensive margin formed dual margin analysis,and this is the new leading edge in trade theory.On this basis,some scholars proposed three marginal analysis.The method provides theoretical framework and way to study the increase of China's automotive export.Using Three Margins approach,this article analyzes the growth status of China's automotive export for the period of year 2003—2014.On this basis,this article farther studies the impact factors of three margins in growth of China's automotive export.Also,the article takes the financial crisis into influencing the China's automotive export.Finally,this article provides some suggestion according to the problems of growth in China's automotive export.In this regard,this article uses three margins method to study the status and problems of China's automotive export in a long continuation term.Based on the study,from the year 2003 to 2014,China's automotive export is increasing gradually,and it is mainly driven by quantity.Price margin and extensive margin show little contribution.And price of China's automotive export is less than the average price in the world.This states that China's automotive export is in a low price and high quantity model of extensive growth of trade.This reflects the problems that China's automotive export is not competitive.On this basis,this article based on the improved Gravity equation,we make an empirical analysis to study the determining factors to the three margins,and take the financial crisis into influencing the China's automotive export.Based on the study,China's automotive industry is in a stage of large but not competitive enough.The trade environment outside has less essential influence on China's automotive export.The policy of China's automotive industry is supply-side reform,however,we discover that technology innovation in exporting countries may lead to a diversification and high-quality sustainable development road.Meanwhile,the financial crisis has the effect on price mainly,and it leads to decline in export.In the recovery phase of financial crisis,quantity growth has strong effect on export growth,and it is the main factor to recover export growth.This article has the structure as follows:Chapter one is the introduction.It describes research background and significance,and summarizes the related references all over the world.Then it introduces the research of thought and method,and comes up with the innovation and deficiency of this article.Chapter two is the theory basic.It explains some research results to provide scientific basis to empirical analysis.Chapter three is the growth status of China's automotive export and Three Margins decompose.It describes the growth status of China's automotive export and Three Margins decompose.Using Three Margins approach analyzes the growth status and problems of China's automotive export.Chapter four is the factors of three margins in growth of China's automotive export.It describes the scientific basis of factors in three margins.Based on the improved Gravity equation,we make an empirical analysis to study the determining factors to the three margins.It explains empirical results and policy implication.Chapter five is conclusion and suggestion.It points out some main conclusions.It also offers some proposals according to the problems in growth of China's automotive export.