| Before the outbreak of the Global Financial Crisis in 2008,many countries in the world promoted the development of their economy by leveraging,and then they witnessed the beneficial effects of leveraging to their domestic economy.However,good times didn't last long.With the unreasonable use of leveraging,these countries met a series of financial risk.Eventually,a severe global financial crisis was triggered.After the outbreak of this crisis,faced with the pressure of economic downturn,these countries began to take measures of deleveraging,while China took the opposite decision.In order to stimulate economic development and ease the huge pressure brought by crisis,China implemented economic stimulus plan represented by 4 Trillion.Within a few years,the economic situation was better,but the expansion speed of debt was really amazing.Because of the development of real estate,the large scale leveraging investment of local government and shadow banking,the debt burden of China was increasing.Meanwhile,the economic growth of China was faced with downturn pressure and the return on invested capital began to decline in recent years.If this situation cannot be changed,severe systemic financial risk will be triggered in the event of insolvency.Until now,most of the domestic studies about the relationship between debt/GDP and financial risk still stayed at the theoretical level,and few people studied about this issue from the perspective of empirical research by using an empirical model.Meanwhile,most of the studies about debt/GDP were about a particular sector,such as enterprise,government.Few people analyzed the overall trend of Chinese debt/GDP based on the macroscopic perspective,and had an in-depth analysis about the structural issue in order to find the source of the financial risk and then put forward reasonable and effective policy suggestions to prevent and mitigate financial risk.This paper measured Chinese current leverage based on the index of debt/GDP.In reference to a large number of studies of relevant scholars,this paper explored the correlation between debt/GDP and financial risk at the theoretical level,and used the VAR model to explore their relationship from the perspective of empirical research.This paper combined the methods of theoretical research and empirical research.Base on the dialectical analysis of debt/GDP,this paper had further knowledge on the relationship between debt/GDP and financial risk.This paper got a clear idea of the financial risk due to the continuous growing of debt/GDP,and then put forward and discussed the policy suggestions about effective deleveraging.The research content of this paper was mainly divided into six parts.The first part was introduction.It introduced the research background of this issue and expounded its theoretical and realistic value.This part summarized related literatures about the relationship between debt/GDP and financial risk and effective deleveraging both in domestic and foreign fields.It made clear the status of studies on this issue,and made clear the related concepts about debt/GDP and Financial Stress Index.This part also.expounded the research framework and methods,and discussed the innovations and deficiencies about this paper.The second part was the'theoretical research about the relationship between debt/GDP and financial risk.It mainly introduced how the continuous growing debt/GDP led to financial risk from the perspective of total amount and structure.According to the measured diameter,this paper divided the debt/GDP into four parts to discuss the structural issue,which were government department,non-financial corporation,resident and financial institution.The third part was the descriptive statistical analysis about the present situation of Chinese debt/GDP.It respectively described the present situation of leverage about government department,non-financial corporation,resident,financial institution and the whole society.It made clear the safety state of leverage in every sector.The leverage of the whole society was rising,and the leverage growths of non-financial sector and local government sector were amazing.There was a safety hazard.Found out the risk in order to suit the remedy to the case.Then policy suggestions about effective deleveraging should be put forward.The forth part was the construction of Financial Stress Index.This part selected the appropriate risk indicators and the appropriate method of weight determining,combining with the actual condition of Chinese economy and the availability of the data.Therefore,it could construct a Financial Stress Index which reflected the actual financial risk of China.The fifth part was the empirical research of the relationship between debt/GDP and financial risk in China.It explored the impact on financial risk when changed the debt/GDP by using VAR model.It proved their relationship from the perspective of mathematics.The conclusion was that the growing debt/GDP made the financial risk larger.Then it found out the departments which had much influence on financial risk by analyzing the change of the financial risk in every ecomomy department due to the rising of debt/GDP.The sixth part were conclusions and policy suggestions.It made a conclusion about the theoretical and empirical research above,and then put forward seven kinds of policy suggestions for financial risk,which were about effective deleveraging,preventing and mitigating financial risk.The policy suggestions were respectively dissolving excess capacity,improving the efficiency of capital using,developing direct financing market,improving the return on capital,standardizing the development of local financing platform,dividing the ownership of property and duties about government reasonably and solving the problem of soft budget constraint in government.The first forth suggestions were mainly about the over-leveraged situation in non-financial enterprise sector,and the last three suggestions were mainly about the over-leveraged situation in local government sector.The innovation of this paper was to select the index of the leverage as core variable,and then standing in the aspect of the macroscopic angle and from the perspective of total amount and structure.It analyzed the situation that the continuous growing of Chinese leverage currently would lead to the breakout of financial risk.Meanwhile,this paper introduced the debt/GDP into the VAR model,and proved the relationship between it and financial risk based on the empirical perspective.The deficiency of this paper was that the time span of the data selection was small because of the influence of data availability and the time frequency matching degree with the core variable.The bond industry and the insurance industry risk indicators were not included when built the Financial Stress Index. |
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