An Analysis Of Chinese Residents' Household Assets Allocation

In recent years,with the continuous improvement of Chinese residents' life quality and the development of capital market,residents' asset allocation has become the focus of public,it will not only be affected by the family' s internal characteristics,but also by the macroeconomic environment.In each period,according to income,consumption decisions and risk tolerance,combined with external macroeconomic factors,each family makes their own asset allocation decisions.When the external economic situation changes,families will change their expectations on macroeconomic environment,then they will adjust its asset portfolio to achieve the goal of asset preservation and appreciation.On the basis of allocation data and structure of financial assets and residence in physical assets,this paper attempts to reveal how macro and micro factors affect Chinese residents,household asset allocation behavior.This paper uses variable of consumption as a medium to associate micro-household asset allocation behavior with the GDP growth rate and expected inflation rate.The mechanism is as follows:on one hand,residents' family assets choosing willingness depends on the relationship between asset yield and consumption,thus,the factors that affect asset yield or consumption will have an indirect effect on family assets choices.On the other hand,when the external macroeconomic environment changes,the economic indicators of expected inflation rate,inflation rate and interest rate will directly affect assets' price and earnings.Therefore,reasonable macroeconomic expectations are particularly significant.Especially inflation expectation,it will largely affect residents'consumption decision.In the framework of the mixed new Keynesian Phillips curve,this paper expands theoretical model by setting the VAR equation with expected inflation rate and expected real interest rate and constructing the state-space model.Selecting the data from January 2001 to December 2014 and using the Kalman filter algorithm,this paper estimates expected inflation rate,captures tendency of expected inflation rate and slows its excessive volatility.Household assets can be divided into savings(currency,deposit),earnings(stock,securities investment fund,government bonds,insurance reserves)and physical asset(residence).Finally,this paper explores how macroeconomic indicators GDP growth rate,interest rate,expected inflation rate and inflation rate,household internal factors(income level,consumption level)and asset price factors(residence price,stock price)influence household asset allocation behavior by constructing a multiple GARCH model.The finding is that the proportion of savings assets is highest and the earnings assets is lowest in resident's asset structure.It indicates that savings asset is still the main asset of household financial assets.In addition,expected inflation rate has a downward trend,and is significantly positively affect residence allocation.In face of external macroeconomic environment changes,savings assets respond more quickly than earning assets.When macroeconomic policies affect residents'earning asset allocation by interest rate,the change of funds usage will continue a long time,this makes residents more prudent when allocating earning assets.Therefore,the central bank should strengthen expectation management by using various channels and media to enhance policies transparency and guide the public forms reasonable inflation expectations.In addition,residents should timely adjust asset structure and quantity and make reasonable and efficient asset allocation decisions by balancing family's internal factors and external macroeconomic environment.