Is China's Stock Market A Barometer Of National Macroeconomic?

China's stock market has developed more than 20 years with an extremely rapid speed,which has become an important part of China's national economy,besides,it also play an important part in optimizing the allocation of resources for enterprises and providing direct financing channels.The stock market in the service of the national economy will also reflect the macroeconomic performance.At present,the relationship between the development of stock market and macroeconomic operation has become the focus of some relevant scholars' s research,especially the "barometer" function of stock market,that is,whether the fluctuation of stock market can predict the trend of macroeconomic,whether it can provide an important basis for judgment and investment decision-making.However,China's stock market is still a new market,all aspects of the mechanism is not mature enough,which blocked China's stock market to play its "barometer" function.Therefore,it is very important to study the relationship between China's stock market and macroeconomy,and to find out the relationship between the two stocks.It is also very important to promote the healthy and stable development of China's stock market and the effective function of "barometer".In this paper,we used the qualitative and quantitative methods,empirical comparison and other methods to analyze the China and US stock market and the relationship between the national economy and the stock market to the national economy forecast function.First of all,by combing the existing domestic and foreign literature,we analyzed the important impact of macroeconomic operation of the stock market,and in turn,the development of the stock market can also reflect the macroeconomic operation.Secondly,by analyzing the present situation of China's stock market,and discusses the failure of China's stock market through comparative analysis.Then we choose the stock market indicators and macroeconomic indicators of China and the United States,including the Shanghai Composite Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average,the consumer price index,the producer price index,the broad money supply and the industrial added value,and establish the VAR model.The empirical analysis and judgment of ADF unit root test,Granger causality test,impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis method were carried out respectively.The empirical results show that the correlation between the American stock market and its national economy is significant,and the barometer effect can be effectively exerted.For the Chinese stock market,its development is less maturity than the US stock market,and has less relative with the national economy,thus it cannot play a good stock market "barometer" effect.Therefore,the impact of China's stock market on the macroeconomic is not significant,to a certain extent,the stock market volatility has deviated from the macroeconomic operation,indicating that the weak ability of stock market on the macroeconomic forecast and explain,all of these cannot fully explain China's stock market already has a valid of the economic "barometer" function,its effectiveness has yet to be strengthened.