Study On ? Coefficient In Income Method Assessment Under Financial Crisis

With the merger and reorganization of Chinese enterprises,equity transactions,asset transfer and other economic activities gradually increased,objective and reasonable value assessment has played a particularly important role on the maintenance of capital market stability.And the enterprise value assessment in the income method has been widely used in theory and practice,which the calculation of the discount rate is the focus of all professionals' research and exploration.The estimation of the ? value of the systemic risk coefficient based on the capital asset pricing model has a significant impact on the accuracy of the discount rate forecast.However,the harsh assumptions of the capital asset pricing model require that only market factors have an impact on earnings,while macroeconomic,the degree of economy,the economic cycle and other aspects of the neglect will lead to the deviation of the estimated ? coefficient,which then have a certain impact on the benefits of corporate value assessment results.Based on the above theoretical and realistic background,and the significant market volatility in China in 2015,this paper studies the impact of market volatility and even the outbreak of financial crisis on the estimation of ? in the income method from the perspective of economic cycle:from the use of assessment methods and industry Characteristics of the two aspects of the study of the selected industries,that is,with economic cycle sensitivity of the mining industry and non-cyclical,high-tech high-risk pharmaceutical manufacturing industry,compared to the general method and excluding the financial crisis to return to the industry to estimate the ? coefficient,which found that the financial crisis has a different degree of impact on the two industries,and the impact on the cyclical industry is more significant;And then in order to explore the new method of ? coefficient estimation which can eliminate the financial crisis' impact.From the perspective of continuous extension of the perspective of the two industries and enterprises which estimate the value of(3 changes,we get the following conclusions:In the ? coefficient estimation of periodic industry,we should take full account of the impact of periodic fluctuations,the retroactive period as far as possible to cover the entire industry cycle or cycle of the multiple;The mining industry's retroactive window can be selected for 10 years.And pharmaceutical manufacturing industry estimates of ?has a certain stability which can be selected for 6 years.However,the ? estimates of individual stocks show a strong fluctuation with the increase of the retroactive period.Therefore,when determining the ? parameter of the income method,try to choose the industry rather than the comparable company as a reference so as to obtain a more stable and accurate assessment of the value.It is hoped that through the research of this paper,we will make contributions to the new ideas for the determination of ? parameters in the evaluation of enterprise value in China.