Research On The Impact Of Substitution Bonds In Yunnan Province On Debt Liquidity Risk

To cope with the arrival of the world financial crisis,the state should take the implementation of the four trillion plan to stimulus economic in 2009.To a certain extent,this national strategy has improved the negative situation of current economic situation;however,it works on the improvement of the local government debt scale and increase the debt risk of local government.During the period of "much starker choices-and graver consequences-in",local governments are supposed to face debt centralized payment conditions.The government should not only face the huge debt service pressure and supposed to face the slow economic growth.Because of that,the proposed replacement bond plan has implemented to restructure debt.Even though our country's overall debt is under management,government assets is greater than the total liabilities,therefore only exist liquidity risk,is unable to repay maturing debt principal and interest risk.As the debt liquidity risk has become increasingly apparent,debt term mismatch,caused by short-term default fait accompli,path selection of debt restructuring as repayment of the debt.And replacement issuance essence first in order to specify the size of local debt,and secondly to replace the stock of debt for refinancing,to ease the debt liquidity risk.But so far the use of replacement bond basically used to repay the government debt due,after years of liquidity problems still exist,the risk is increased or reduced,there is still a question.Therefore,to face of local government economic downward pressure,rigid spending is on the increase of economy,local government debt liquidity risk problem need to be further clear.This dissertation will base on the theoretical and empirical analysis to analysis the liquidity risk of the Yunnan province's replacement bond debt.Firstly,this dissertation will through the literature review the development of local government debt situation,solvency,resolving measures.Further,in this part,it will also work on definition of local debt and from the related theory analysis of bonds.Secondly,byanalysis of the exchange bond mechanism to explore the influence of local debt,it showed the replacement bond to the action mechanism of debt liquidity risk and the liquidity risk the possibility of extension.Then,the use of contingent claim analysis method for debt after replacement of local debt liquidity risk in Yunnan province were studied,thus the analysis of its future risk,to estimate the local government in 2017 after the debt service pressure increase.The strategy which is related to only use the current can repay money to repay the debt is relatively difficult.By influence of that,the local debt liquidity crisis inevitable.Finally,this dissertation will through empirical study,in accordance with the debt,debt service revenue,put forward the corresponding policy suggestion to the bond market: pay attention to the stable economic growth,with the corresponding amount of debt replacement plan,promote the development of bond markets efficient,broadened the source of debt repayment fund,increasing the service efficiency of bond funds,strengthen the debt risk warning and accountability.