Resource Misallocation And Its Impact To Total Factor Productivity Of China's Manufacturing Industry

Under the background of "China's new normal",China's manufacturing industry that relying on resource investment to drive the economic growth must change its growth model to achieve the strategy of "manufacturing power" that put forward in the "13th Five-Year Plan".In March 2015,the Chinese government first proposed "improving total factor productivity" in its work report,and pointed out that "improving total factor productivity is the only sustainable growth model in China's new normal".In January 2016,the Central Finance and Economy Leading Group meet to put forward the "supply-front reform",indicating that "supply-front reform is to achieve optimal allocation of resources and optimize the regeneration.In this context,the mismatch status of the manufacturing industry and its impact on total factor productivity has become the direction of our attention.We calculate China's manufacturing resources mismatch and its impact on total factor productivity,This paper includes the following four parts:(1)We combed the latest research on resources mismatch theory at home and abroad and studied its influence on the total factor productivity,expounded connotation of the resources allocation theory and growth theory;(2)We carried on the regression analysis of production function,analyzing the China's manufacturing resources mismatch and its impact on the gap between actual TFP and the potential TFP quantitatively from the angle of time trends,industry,regional based on HK model,data of the listed manufacturing companies during 2008-2015 in Wind database;(3)Analyzed the source of the mismatch from enterprise characteristics,regional characteristics and policy variables.The conclusions are as follows;the allocation efficiency of China's manufacturing industry is improving during the 8-year sample period.The coefficient of misallocation in 2015 is 28.9%lower than that in 2008.The actual TFP of manufacturing enterprises is increasing year by year,the gap between actual TFP and potential TFP is decreasing.If the manufacturing enterprises can effectively eliminate the resource misallocation in 2015,the TFP is expected to increase 9.3%.The allocation of resource-dependent industries shows a worsening trend,and the resources misallocation of emerging industries is low and may be decreasing.Correspondingly,the actual TFP of the sunset industry is decreasing during the sample period,and the actual TFP of the new industry is increasing rapidly,the actual TFP of mature industry growth steadily.The development of different industries has their respective characteristics significantly.The misallocation level in different regions,the central region is the worst,followed by is the eastern region,and the western region is the best.The growth space of the gap between the actual TFP and the potential TFP,the largest is eastern region,the second is the central region and the western region in the least,and the difference is in line with the regional economic development.The difference accords with the degree of economic development among regions.Taking the data of 2015 as the standard,if the resource allocation efficiency is optimal,the growth space of TFP in the east,middle and west areas can increase 18.21%,13.11%and 9.27%respectively.Finally,the empirical study on the influencing factors of resource misallocation shows that firm size factor can reduce the capital misallocation,but worsen labor mismatch and overall resource mismatch.The proportion of export volume,the proportion of government subsidy and the growth rate of net profit can alleviate the degree of resource misallocation in a certain extent.Overall,the way of China's manufacturing growth has improved,the shift towards connotation type development path is in the crucial stage.Therefore,we need to constantly optimize the allocation of resources efficiency and promote the resources reasonable flow freely,but we also need to guide resource flow between industries and regional rationally,support emerging industry to improve China's manufacturing TFP,stimulate China's economic growing vitality,realizing the shift towards the powerful country of manufacturing.