Quantitative Regression Method And Its Application In Forecasting Financial Market Risk

In this society with economic globalization,the financial markets in the world becomes increasingly integrated,and the mutual contacts have grown stronger.But when the market drives the capital flows and speeds up the efficiency of resource allocation,it also brings risks to the world's financial markets.As we know,in 2007,the real estate had caused the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States,and this crisis also leaded to a serious global financial crisis.In fact,before this crisis,the financial market is also not going well.Because of the important role of the financial market in the market economy,the financial risk is one of the main topics in the field of finance.Moreover,due to the innovation of financial products,the relaxed financial controls,and the increase in derivative financial products,the financial risks have been enlarged.How to effectively measure and control the risk has become the core of the financial research and practice.To study these problems is very important for the stability and development of China's financial market.The financial risk measurement index VaR appears in 1993.Since then it is used widely in the world,becomes the core content of risk management,and becomes a universal index used to measure risk.It is important to develop and apply VaR to prevent and manage financial risk.In this paper,we use quantile regression to calculate the VaR,and then evaluate the model directly.The main contents of this paper are quantile regression method,enterprise financial risk,the application of VaR in financial risk,the calculation methods of VaR.The main results of this paper will provide a new and effect method to measure financial risk,and then will provide the reference for the forecast and management of financial risk.