The Statistical Study On The Exports Fluctuation Impacted By The EU's New Quantitative Easing In China

Since 2008,The European Union's economy was in the depression coming with the economic crisis.Then,the European Union began to implementation small-scale quantitative easing,but the slow growth of the economy in European has not been fundamentally solved.Until December 2014,The Euro zone's inflation rate even reached negative 0.2%,and the European Central Bank finally realized the importance of implementation of the quantitative easing.On January 22 in 2015,Mario Draghi,the European Central Bank president,announced that they will be implement quantitative easing monetary policy officially,opening the prelude of the European Union of quantitative easing.After the implementation of the quantitative easing in European Union,the European central bank has lowered the benchmark interest rates many times.since May in 2015,The interest rates of the European Union was negative,and the inflation rate has fluctuated slightly,making the unemployment rate fall.The European Union is the most important export trade partner during the five years,while the export trade has been as a major economic growth point in our country.we need to pay enough attention on the European Union's quantitative easing,because it will influence our exports through various channels.The article constructs the Global Vector Autoregressive Model to analyze the impact of the European Union on the exports in China,using the month data from January 2005 to December 2015.The country variables in the article include:industrial production index,Consumer Price Index,the effective exchange rate,the nominal short-term interest rate,money supply,commodity price index and exports value,and the global variables include:international oil price,the price of raw materials,international commodity prices.The results show that the influences of the European Union's new quantitative easing on the exports in China are difference through various channels,and it will be helpful for the increase of export in our country in the future.In addition,the empirical results also find that the influence of the quantitative easing on different regions and countries also various.On this basis,the article puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations,improving reference for the future changes of exports in China.