The Construction And Empirical Research On Financial Early-warning Model Of NEEQ Listed Companies

The wind of financing outlet,in Internet finance,has enriched many companies,including P2P,Crowdfunding,and Payments,but it cannot be always sustained.After bidding farewell to the Internet financing outlet,this wind may blow to other Internet field,that is,National Equities Exchange and Quotations(NEEQ).In recent years,the NEEQ market has been growing rapidly.As of January 26,2016,there are 5574 companies listed on NEEQ,more than the amount of those companies listed on either SSE or SZSE,with the market value exceeding 2500 million RMB.And that the total financing accounted for the total market capitalization is far more than this same proportion of the SSE and SZSE.Since reform and opening up to the world in 1980s,the capital market development,in China,just has only thirty years history,therefore,many political and economic institutions are still yet to get further development.Meanwhile,at the same time,several Chinese scholars begun to study financial early warning models,which was fairly late compared with the similar studies begun in the west nearly half a century ago.What's more,most of these Chinese studies are simply copies of foreign models,and they mainly selected from the motherboard a-share listed companies in China as the research sample,which would definitely lead to insufficient study on small and medium-sized enterprises'-financial early warning issues.Obviously,the study for the NEEQ's financial early warning model is almost blank.Although the NEEQ has a rapid development and a promising future,there are still many confused issues we are facing with,such as a short-time promotions,fewer experiences in risk management,a defective system in modern enterprise regulation,a gloomy financing surrounding and an unsuitable mind in enterprise finance.This paper selected 81 companies in 2012 listed on the NEEQ as samples,after selecting 32 financial indicators and researching their six aspects,namely operation,solvency,profitability,cash flow,leverage,and non-financial indicators,it constructs a complete set of financial indicators system,screens those indexes preliminarily,and excludes some non-significant indicator variables.Besides,a large number of financial indicators are converted to a small number of integrated indicators by analyzing their diverse factors.Finally the comprehensive index is constructed to suit the F-score model,Logistic regression model and ANN model respectively.Whose predictive efficiency can reach 87.65%,92.6%,95.3%,a good forecast accuracy.Results show that the ANN model is suitable for the NEEQ's financial projections.