A Research On The U.S.Dollar Index Spillover Effects On Chinese Bond Market

The bond market is an important part of a country's financial markets,with the development of economic globalization and financial liberalization deepening development,through research and analysis of the impact of the index of China's bond market channels,and found that the dollar index has become the important factors that affect China's bond market.In the second half of 2016,China's bond market slump triggered the personage inside course of study on the influence factor of the bond market at present.Based on this background,to promote the process of economic globalization,the moment in China,this paper takes the practice of Chinese bond market prices fell as the background,on the center of the liquidity preference theory model as the research theory,empirical research using the linear regression model,tried to dollar index spillover effects of China's bond market integration of theory and empirical analysis.This research in the bond market in our country and the relationship between the dollar index as the main body,explores the dollar index fluctuation and the relationship between China's bond market.Full text of the research is divided into three parts: literature,theoretical research and empirical test.In literature section,this article from the dollar index on the macro economy,the impact on the capital market,and the influence of the influence on the bond market three levels of past literature at home and abroad and analysis.Dollar index's influence on the economic development of our country involves all levels,through cost channels,exchange rates and currency impact on our country's real economy has played a pivotal role.Dollars for capital market research mainly focus on the value of the dollar on the influence of the stock market,literature and found that many empirical results show that between the dollar and the stock market is the existence of long-term co-integration relationship.Study and the dollar and the bond market in China is relatively small,research is generally accepted that the dollar has little effect on our country's bond market.Role in theoretical study part,through the model of Keynes' s liquidity preference theory,bond supply and demand equilibrium theory and interest rate analysis of the equilibrium theory,deeply analyzes the fluctuations in the dollar index is how through the mechanism of spillover effects on the bond market in our country.The orised,according to the dynamic changes of the liquidity preference model,and the dollar index of double meaning interpretation,from the price level effect and expected inflation effect two ways to our country's bond market price fluctuations have certain effect,when the dollar index rose,China's bond market prices will fall.In empirical research part,the author adopted in July 2016 to January 2017,the empirical analysis of the data,choose Shanghai bond index as a measure of bond in our country overall change index as the dependent variable,and the New York cotton exchange dollar index as the independent variables,using linear regression and a series of test methods to determine the dollar index of spillover effects on the bond market in our country,the test results show that at the time of the study growth rate of the dollar index each rose 1%,the growth rate of national debt index would fall by 0.03%,but that is not a moment,this can be thought of,changes in the bond market in our country at present stage is affected by the spillover effects the dollar index,it also means that our country's capital markets are facing new challenges and opportunities.In the conclusion part,the author concluded in this paper,the results from the combination of theory and empirical research,and aiming at the present stage of the bond market make certain analysis and judgment.