The Effects Of Exports In Goods On The Elasticity Of Labor Demand In China

Economic globalization develops rapidly in these years,at the same time,China is playing a more and more important part in commodity trade in the world.Export is not only an important factor in promoting economic development,but also an important factor in promoting the development of the labor market.In recent years,the impact of international trade on the labor market has become a hot topic.But majority of the researches base on macroeconomic data and study on the effect of international trade on employment and wage,rather than study on the effects of export on labor demand elasticity using micro data.Therefore,this paper will discuss four questions:(1)whether export of merchandise in China has positive effects on the labor demand elasticity or not;(2)the effects of the export to countries with different development levels on the labor demand elasticity;(3)the effects of export in different industries on the labor demand elasticity;(4)the effects of export in different trade patterns on the labor demand elasticity.This paper is divided into six parts.The first chapter describes the background of the impact of Chinese commodity exports on the elasiticity of labor demand.The second chapter summarizes the literature about the impacts of import,export,outsourcing and FDI on labor market.It finds that because of different objects,data levels,theoretical models and test methods,the empirical results are different,research on the relation between export and the labor demand elasticity is still necessary.The third chapter mainly analyzes the relationship between export and labor market from the development process and current situation of China's commodity exports and labor market,which provides a realistic basis for the following empirical test.Based on the macro data,it finds that the merchandise export of China is very important for employment.The development of wage and merchandise export in China has similar trend.The labor demand elasticity in China fluctuates gradually and has a downward trend.The fourth chapter establishes the theoretical model and deduces the empirical model in order to predict the possible results.In the fifth chapter,this paper uses the consolidated data of customs database and industrial enterprise database from 2002 to 2006,and uses the least square method and fixed effect method to test and verify.The empirical results show total export of commodity helps to reduce the elasticity of labor demand.In the industry perspective,the export of labor-intensive industry and capital-intensive industry is conducive to reducing the elasticity of labor demand,the export of resource-intensive industry has few significant effects on the elasiticity of labor demand.In terms of trade objects,export to G7 countries is favourable to reducing the elasticity of labor demand,export to OECD and BRICS has positive effects on the elasticity of labor demand but not significant,export to ASEAN also has no obvious impacts,export to other countries is conducive to reducing the elasticity of labor demand;In terms of trade patterns,the export of general trade will reduce the elasticity of labor demand while export of processing trade and other trade patterns' impacts are not significant.Finally,according to the empirical results,this paper puts forward some policy recommendations to promote the development of labor market in China.Different from most existing researches,this paper mainly uses large-scale enterprise survey data and find that export not only affects the whole labor market,but also make differences in the elasticity of labor demand of different industries,different trade patterns and export to different countries.Meanwhile,the rigorous measurement method is used in the empirical test,which largely overcomes the endogenous problems which can not be avoided in the previous researches,and obtains accurate estimation results about the effects of exports on the elasticity of labor demand.The research results of this paper have instructive significance for the government to formulate relevant export policies and strategies,as well as to stabilize the labor market.