The Study On The Impact Of Local Government Debt On Regional Economic Growth

When the government is facing tremendous pressure,the government often borrows to private by some way,so these loans became a general sense of government debt that is a favorable accelerator to play their own administrative functions of the government.The government's access to these debts will normally be used in the construction of education or other public infrastructure.However,in the implementation process of the using of these debts,it have a large gap between the using and management of the raised debts and planned to use for the government,problems in the using of debts that could make many countries create more or less debt crisis.In order to study the impact of local government debt on economic growth,first of all,this paper has carried on the theoretical research and the present situation analysis,then we take on the empirical research,finally we take concludes and give the corresponding policy suggestion.The first chapter introduces the research background and significance of this paper,and briefly expounds why the author should write this article,and what's the significance of writing this article.Then,in the second section,this paper sorts out the research results about the relationship between debts and economic development both at home and abroad.After that,the author introduces the research method in detail,and describes the research content and research framework of this paper.The second chapter discusses the theoretical basis of local government debts and local economic development,which is the theory of public debt,and specifically describes the effective theory of public debt,the invalid theory of public debt and the neutral theory of public debt,to provide the theoretical basis for the following research.The third chapter is the qualitative analysis of local debt affect economic growth in the region,which is also the mechanism analysis,we were discussed from the short-term fluctuations and long-term growth,and then have a qualitative understanding of the impact of debts for economic development.The fourth chapter is divided into three sections.The first section discusses the current situation of China's local government debt,the second section expounds some problems existing for local government debt in China,then the third section is carrying out a detailed analysis of the problems.The fifth chapter mainly analyzes the relationship between local government debt and economic growth by statistical analysis and econometric analysis,it is also the focus of the whole article,the selected data is that the data of 30 provinces from 2009 to 2013.First of all,the first section of this chapter mainly take the statistical analysis of relationship of debt and economic development of 30 provinces in nationwide,followed to put the country divided into three regions,which is the eastern,central and western,and take regional units for statistical analysis.In the second section,the static panel model and the dynamic panel model are used to take regression of the relationship between debt and economic development,and analyze the regression results.The static panel model taking regression is selected by random model.The system GMM estimation method is used for dynamic panel's regression.The sixth chapter summarizes the previous theoretical research and empirical research,and puts forward some policy suggestions.Through the full text of the study,the following conclusions are obtained.(1)There are a lot of problems in the local government debt.The risk of local government debt is mainly concentrated in the bank,the local government debt management lack of specialized agencies,local government debt funds are not rational used,some local government debt size exceeds its ability to repay,local government debt is facing liquidity risk in the short term,and so on.These problems are restricting the local debt to promote the development of local economic.(2)From the statistical analysis of the 30 provinces,we found that the largest debt in the provinces,the size of its GDP is not necessarily the largest.But the overall performance is that the provinces have large debt,the size of the GDP of the provinces is generally relatively large.In the three major regions of China,the debt rates in the central and eastern parts are much lower than those in the west,but the debt size in the eastern region is much higher than those in the central and western regions.The liabilities in the eastern,central and western regions are increasing year by year.(3)Based on the statistical analysis of the 30 provinces,we found that there was a positive relationship between local government debt and regional economic growth.(4)Through the measurement of the text can be obtained,the debt rate and economic growth have a causal relationship each other,and the economic growth rate for the promotion of the debt rate is higher than the debt rate for the promotion of economic growth.Whether the result of the regression of the static panel data model or the result of the regression of the system GMM shows that the debt rate has a significant positive effect on the economic growth rate,and this conclusion is similar to results of our statistical analysis we used in the 30 provinces of data from 2009 to 2013.And the coefficients returned by the lagged items are greater than the static panel's regression,which show that in terms of short-term,the debt rate for the promotion of economic growth in the long-term is more obvious.Regional heterogeneity test shows that from the eastern part of China to the central and westward,the effect of the debt rate on the economic growth rate is weakening.