The Empirical Analysis Of Function Of Price Discovery About China's Rubber Futures Market

Rubber,as one of the important commodity in the world,it has important value of application and implications of economic.Rubber itself has a good expansion,insulation,waterproof,plastic and other excellent properties,thus is widely used in everyday life and other all walks of life.Rubber futures based on natural rubber for financial derivatives.Natural rubber,as one of the important raw materials for the real economy,its price volatility in futures market and cash market to a certain extent have played an important role in the economic "barometer",so the market's role in pricing and price discovery is of very important.Concentrated in southeast Asia,the main rubber exporting countries in the world and its pricing power in Europe and the United States,Japan,Singapore and other rubber futures market in developed countries.As an important superpower of rubber industry in China,the demand for natural rubber and rubber products.But due to the slow development of China's futures market and system imperfect and so on,in the rubber has little to say in pricing,in rubber international trade has been in a passive position.So with rubber as the research target,this paper mainly studies the price discovery role of futures market for commodities.Article first in the holding cost,storage cost,price forecast based on the theory of three kinds of price discovery raises the this article main research methods,and then to the world and makes a detailed description of China's rubber market.Using the China rubber futures listed on March 17,2014 after the solstice on February 17,2017,continuous price and the spot market,China rubber continuous price data for the empirical analysis,selected the VAR model,Garbade-Silber model and other related test methods of China rubber futures market a full range of testing,the empirical results found that due to the development of China's futures market is imperfect,the market price discovery function is still very weak,it is from the side reflects the fact that China's futures market is extremely mature.Articles in the final against the empirical results on the development of China's futures market puts forward several policy Suggestions,mainly including system consummation,expansion and market regulation,etc.