Research On The Measurement Of Corporate Bond Default Risk From The Industry Perspective

Bonds is very important low-cost financing tools for governments and businesses,and bonds has "low risk,low yield" characteristics for bond investors,so It is rarely concerned.Over the past three years,bond's "rigid redemption" stealth rules has been broken,bond default events occur frequently,it is affecting the bond market participants' sensitive nerve.The default risk of the bond is the basis of the reasonable pricing of the bond and the important reference for the investors' investment choice.It is also the factor that the indicates the mature of bonds market.With the downward pressure of the macroeconomic system in China,bonds' default risk will continue to expose,or even show a "default normalization" trend.Therefore,it is urgent to measure,prevent,manage the default risk,and Set a reasonable handling mechanism.There are three mian parts of this paper,the first part is the analysis of the status quo of China's bond default;secondly,based on the literature review,we select the KMV model with the strongest applicability in our country,and carry out empirical research,focusing on the results from the perspective of enterprise attributes and the industry;Finally,to explore the market-oriented means of default bond and put forward the relevant supporting recommendations.The part of the analysis of the status quo of the default bond,is mainly to sort out and analyze the bonds that have occurred in our country from the issuer,industry,variety,breach of contract follow-up processing and other aspects.So that we can have a clear understanding of the present situation and characteristics of the bond default.The second part is empirical analysis.At present,there is no literature to study the default risk of a single bond,and the credit risk of the issuer directly determines whether the bond is in breach of contract.Therefore,we choose 10 listed companies which have defaulted and 1738 listed companies as the research object.Using the matlab software to solve the KMV model,we can obtain the default distance of each company,then analyse the results from the company's attributes and industry classification point of view.After that set the default risk early warning line,hoping to bring risk warning and alert to the bond investors.Finally,it is the disposal mechanism of bond default.On the basis of drawing on the mature experience of foreign countries,this paper puts forward the specific disposal methods for different reasons of bond default,which is summarized as autonomous negotiation,debt restructuring,litigation claim and bankruptcy liquidation.And then put forward the relevant measures of the relevant measures of breach of contract,including improving the terms of the issuer,strengthening the intermediary business responsibilities,improving the investor protection mechanism,and vigorously developing the bond derivatives market.