Research On Infection Risk Analysis And Stratification Strategy Of International Steel Futures Market

Under the background of economic globalization and liberalization,China's futures market is becoming more and more prosperous,the futures market gradually occupy an important position in the financial markets,other market can not replace the role.When the futures market delivery information,there will be a risk transfer and connection,form a risk of infection.As a result of the risk contagion phenomenon,a market crisis could spread further,among them,2008 by the U.S.subprime mortgage crisis caused the global financial and economic crisis is a typical example.Therefore,It is important to Research the contagion effect between different financial markets,and It has important theoretical value and practical significance.Steel is second only to oil the world's second largest commodity,so steel and its related product price fluctuations will have important effect on national economic growth.China is the world's largest steel production and sales,in the steel production cost,the largest is the iron ore proportion.In order to have certain influence on steel prices,on March 27,2009,the Shanghai futures exchange launch of steel futures,Then,in October 2013,futures in dalian Commodity Exchange introduced for iron ore and steel companies can operate in the futures market,make the cost of purchasing amount remained stable,enterprise's normal operation profit is guaranteed.Iron ore futures of Singapore and the United States steel futures be influential in the international community,therefore,this article will focus on China,the United States and Singapore of the three countries of contagion effects of iron ore and steel futures for empirical research.This paper combed the domestic and foreign scholars for the futures market risk contagion effect research,analyzes the transmission steel futures market risk basic theory,reviews the origin of the futures market and international major steel futures market.On the basis of theoretical analysis,summarizes the general research methods of risk contagion effects.Through the correlation analysis and Granger causality test international transmission steel futures market risk analysis.Build the model after infection for steel futures market risk,analysis of the international steel futures price gains contagion effect,for heteroscedasticity testing first,and then on the basis of the ARCH model to construct GARCH model of the international steel futures market is studied further analysis,then by building the impulse response function of the international steel futures market more in-depth analysis of international contagion effect between the steel futures.Finally,according to the empirical results of the international steel futures market risk contagion,respectively from the macro level of the government,medium enterprise level,the level of microcosmic individual investors stratified strategy is proposed.For the government,on the establishment of supervision system,should formulate strict futures hedge supervision,put an end to the phenomenon of excessive speculation,establish internal control system,the escort for the healthy development of the enterprise,furthermore,improve the market structure,to increase the activity of the market,the market investors structure more reasonable,better play to the role of the steel futures market,also should further improve the system of steel futures delivery,prevent malicious refused to pay.For businesses,should reform the system of state-owned enterprises,the establishment of independent functional department,in order to achieve better efficiency of hedging.In addition,on the hedging strategy,should notice to choose,to carry out according to specific situations.For futures investors,should not only focus on the domestic other varieties of steel futures price changes,also should pay attention to the reference of other countries,varieties of steel futures price changes,the various reference,make more scientific and reasonable operating decisions.