| The new three board market in recent years has made rapid development,the three new board companies to assess the value of investment decisions and corporate finance,the transfer plate is of great significance.There are many limitations in using traditional methods to evaluate the value of the new three board enterprises,which can not reflect the great growth of high-tech enterprises.This paper uses Black-Scholes model,two-tree model and Monte Carlo simulation three kinds of real options to evaluate the equity value of 40 new three board enterprises,and draws a conclusion:First of all,Black-Scholes evaluation model and two binomial tree model is very close to the result,in fact,through the theoretical analysis,in the infinite time interval is small,the number of steps is infinite,the results obtained by the two methods are close,which accord with the facts.And through the Monte Carlo simulation results slightly larger than the previous two methods,closer to the market value and the actual value,and the overall assessment of the difference is small,has more advantages than the previous two methods,Secondly,the three methods are the results according to actual market price discovery,real option method for evaluating the results of low error,but the actual ownership of three methods of evaluation results and the enterprise value are within 20%,the result was acceptable.The analysis results are low,the reason for the assessment of real option method: three models,it is assumed that the asset price changes in the future to continuous geometry Brown motion,but the change of asset price in practice is not in accordance with a description of the market,the existence of non rational behavior,often cause the stock price significantly,one-way,irreversible fluctuations,but the real option method clearly fails to account for this Bring irreversible fluctuation exercise opportunity,therefore may exercise the revenue decline,evaluation value decreased.Two,Black-Scholes model is very harsh,if no transaction costs,no dividend distribution,which in any country,any market is not possible,the model and Monte Carlo simulation model did not consider the distribution of the two fork tree the dividend that may exist in the future,the three model only considers the capital gains a profit,but in the actual dividend and capital gains as income should be considered,the real option method underestimated the value of the enterprise.In three,theBlack Scholes model and the two binomial tree model are based on the assumption that the option is European option expires Before can not exercise,this also ignores the possible benefits of exercise opportunities,make the evaluation value,evaluate the value of Monte Carlo simulation model can be found,the latter than the former two,because the Monte Carlo simulation model is the assumption that options are American options,consider the possible point in time so the exercise opportunities return,therefore more reasonable.Finally,through the evaluation of above three kinds of knowledge of the financial data requires less real option valuation,only need to know the assets and liabilities of the basic business and the price of the shares of enterprises,in practice,as long as the written procedures,a simple data can be calculated very convenient and efficient.Between the traditional evaluation method in assessment of high risk,high growth industries,the real option method can play a better role in the assessment of the value of the new board of high-tech enterprises,is conducive to find the value of depression in high-tech enterprises. |
