Research On Investment Decision Of Gansu Province Metro Project Based On Bayesian-Option Game

With the rapid economic development in Gansu Province,the main city of motor vehicle ownership is growing,and the travel demand of city residents are also increasing;at the same time,due to the unique geographical restrictions of Gansu province "both narrow in east and west",the increasingly serious traffic congestion problems also reduced residents travel efficiency in main city.As one of the urban rail transit system,subway is an effective way to relieve traffic pressure in main cities of Gansu province because of its unique advantages such as large traffic volume and fast speed.However,because the subway project has high construction cost,huge investment,long payback period,and the irreversibility of investment characteristics,considering the Gansu special geographical environment,social environment,cultural environment and construction conditions and other factors,how to assess the value of the project to carry out the subway project investment decision scientifically and accurately becomes an urgent subway project construction problem need to solve at present in Gansu Province main cities.This paper adopts the method of Bayes game option to solve the problems of Gansu province main city subway project investment decision.firstly,using the common Black-Scholes pricing model considering project real option value and net present value to assess Lanzhou subway project value more accurate.Secondly,aiming at the deficiency in volatility stochastic Black-Scholes pricing model,based on Bayesian theorem to make full use of all known information,considering the advantage of parameters prior and posterior information,then to study the Black-Scholes pricing model in volatility as random variables and get a different frequency school using historical data to determine the historical volatility rate(constant),namely,Bayesian volatility(distribution function).In order to construct Bayesian option game model,in a more reasonable assessment of the value of Gansu main city subway project,and the party and government investment in Gansu metro project in the period of concession was simulated and analyzed.Finally,the feasibility and effectiveness of the project investment decision is verified through the analysis of the Bayesian option model of a subway project in Lanzhou,Gansu.