An Empirical Analysis On The Relationship Between Silver Spot Price And Futures Price

Silver,as a commodity attribute and financial attributes of important commodities in China's economic development has a very important position,as a silver production and demand power,China for a long time the lack of silver market prices can withstand the dramatic changes in the effective tool,making Domestic silver companies can not control risk well.May 10,2012,silver became China's second precious metals futures varieties began trading in the Shanghai Futures Exchange,July 5,2013,in order to make domestic customers timely digest the international market information,better through the domestic market management risk,Silver futures began trading at night,the implementation of continuous trading on the development of China's real economy,as well as enhance the authority of China's silver price has brought a positive impact,but also to promote China's silver enterprises to participate in futures enthusiasm and then improve the silver Adjustment of futures market structure.Silver futures as a basic function of futures,including the discovery of price and avoid risks,which avoid risks,generally refers to the enterprise through hedging,in the current two market transactions to offset the profit and loss,control costs and lock the benefits of the purpose,in addition to,The sales company can be sold in the futures market hedge,until the delivery date for physical delivery,the futures platform as a sales platform for the company'smarketing business to develop new ways to the company's business development escort;futures Another basic function is the price discovery,the effective expression of price discovery is the spot price can be formed through the futures market,the international price gap can also be through different markets at home and abroad arbitrage transactions narrowed,this paper through the silver futures and silver spot price relationship So as to understand the validity of the price discovery function in China's silver futures market and find out the reasons and put forward countermeasures.Not only conducive to improving the silver futures market price formation mechanism is also conducive to better service the real economy,promote the long-term stable development of the silver industry.This paper analyzes the price discovery function of silver futures.The whole paper is divided into six chapters,the first chapter is the introduction part,mainly introduces the development of silver spot,the development of silver futures,the significance of silver futures price discovery,and the innovation and shortcomings of the paper.The second chapter is the literature review,summarizes the domestic and foreign research on the function of price discovery and conclusions.The third chapter first expatiates on futures trading and spot trading,and then explains the price discovery function and its related theory.The fourth chapter is the empirical analysis,select the May 10,2012 start of the silver spot and futures price day frequency data,the first two main issues raised,one for the silver spot price and futures prices between theexistence of a long-term Balanced relationship,and second,if the silver futures and silver spot price there is a long-term balance between the two,then the two is how the trend between the two there is no sequence of changes in the spot price is the impact of futures prices,or futures prices affect the spot price,And then through the ADF unit root test,co-integration test,and Granger causality test to conduct empirical analysis,the results show that the silver spot price of silver futures prices have a guiding role,but the silver futures prices cannot effectively affect the silver spot price,silver futures market Price discovery function does not play its due role.Chapter 5 is a summary of empirical analysis.Chapter 6 analyzes the causes of the conclusions and puts forward the rationalization proposals.