Research On The Relationship Between The Maturity Structure Of China's National Debt Interest Rate And Macroeconomics

The domestic and foreign experts and scholars have carried on the thorough discussion about the correlation between the term structure of interest rate of national debt and the macro economy.After the "debt crash" in 2016,the further research on the term structure of interest rates is particularly important.On the basis of the existing research results,this paper analyzes the relationship between the term structure of interest rates and macro economy.First of all,we use the term structure of interest rates through the use of N-S model to fit the national debt of our country.Secondly,we use the short and long term interest rate to represent the term structure of interest rates,and three representative macroeconomic variables of industrial added value,inflation rate and money supply as proxy variable of macro economy.Finally,the impulse response,variance decomposition and Granger causality test were carried out in two periods from 2009 to 2010 and from 2011 to 2016,so that we can further study the relationship between term structure of interest rate of national debt and micro economy.Through empirical analysis,we can see that only some of the macroeconomic variables and term structure of interest rate have bidirectional relationship,which shows that there are still some deficiencies in China's national debt market.Therefore,according to the conclusions of this paper,we expect this paper can have some positive significance to the development of China's national debt market and macro economy.