The Determinants Study On MTN Issue Spreads In Our Country

Since its release in 2008,the medium-term notes' development is very rapid.During 2008 to 2015,the share of the medium-term notes' issue scale is 19%,which exceeds the same period of enterprise bonds and corporate bonds.However,the medium-term notes' risk can't be ignored.By May 15,2017,there have been 12medium-term notes declared breach of contract or a substantive breach of contract.This fully shows that the medium-term notes' credit risk is high.Because the issue spreads reflect the credit risk of the medium-term notes,it is necessary to analyze the issue spreads of the medium term notes.This paper first analyzes the status of the issue of medium term notes from 5aspects which are issue term,issuer status,guarantee,interest rates,types,industries,debt credit rating.In addition,It also makes a comparative analysis of the issue interest rate of the medium term notes from 3 angles of listing or not,the nature of the enterprise and the issue term.The results show that:(1)For the medium-term notes which have the same enterprise nature,the interest rates of the 5 year medium-term notes are higher than that of the 3 year medium-term notes;(2)For the medium-term notes which have the same term,the interest rates of local state-owned enterprises' medium-term notes are higher than that of Central state-owned enterprises;(3)Except the local state-owned enterprises' 3 year medium-term notes,the interest rates of unlisted enterprises' medium-term notes is higher than that of listed companies.On this basis,it makes an empirical analysis of the factors which affect the interest rate issue of the medium term notes by using principal component analysis and weighted least squares and compare the results.The results show that:(1)financial dependence,GDP growth rate,net asset size and debt protection rate have significant impact on the central state-owned enterprises' medium-term issue spreads.In addition,the current ratio has a significant impact on that of the listed central state-owned enterprises.the loan to deposit ratio and degree of informationasymmetry have significant impact on that of the unlisted central state-owned enterprises;(2)financial dependence,per capita social consumption,net asset size and debt protection rate have significant impact on the local state-owned enterprises' medium-term issue spreads.In addition,the equity multiplier,net asset turnover and debt protection rate have significant impact on that of the listed local state-owned enterprises.the GDP growth rate has a significant impact on that of the unlisted local state-owned enterprises.Finally,it gives some advice on the issuance of the medium term notes,including enriching species of the medium term notes,establishing the early warning system,establishing a dynamic and transparent information disclosure mechanism,establishing a reasonable credit rating mechanism.