Measurement And Analysis Of Interest Rate Fluctuation Effect

In 2003,the “Decision on some issues concerning the improvement of the socialist market economic system” of the party’s the third Plenary Session of the 16 th CPC Central Committee,further pointed out that "steadily promote the interest rate market,establish and improve the mechanism of the formation of interest rate determined by market supply and demand,the central bank through the use of monetary policy tools to guide market interest rates.In recent years,China’s market-oriented interest rate reform steadily.In October 2015,the deposit interest rate ceiling opening,marking China’s market-oriented interest rate.The interest rate market of interest rate increase the interest rate elasticity,to fully reflect the capital financial market supply and demand,to guide the flow of capital reasonable benefits,and thus improve macro-control measures,implementation of the financial market.The interest rate as a tool of market regulation,whether interest rate volatility effect is significant,it is of great significance to test whether the implementation of the regulatory role of macroeconomic.In this paper,from the perspective of investment and consumption,the concept and measure of interest rate volatility effects are reviewed.In the economic theory and the domestic and foreign scholars on the basis of the mechanism of interest rate volatility mechanism and interest rate volatility effect formation were analyzed.Based on the mechanism analysis,collecting relevant data,we would like to the analysis of interest rate volatility of investment effect and consumption effect measure.Through the analysis of the measurement results,using the Ganger causality test,cointegration test,VAR statistics of interest rate volatility effects are not significant cause analysis,and puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions.The empirical results show that the effect of interest rate fluctuation in China on investment and consumption is not significant.Causes analysis results show that the exchange rate,money supply growth rate and GDP growth rate changes are causes that investment effect of interest rate volatility is not significant.The consumption effect of interest rate volatility is not significant because of price and exchange rate,the growth rate of GDP.To thisend,this paper puts forward the following suggestions to improve effect of interest rate fluctuations: to improve the sensitivity of investment and consumption to the fluctuation of interest rate;exchange rate market reform deepening,;to improve the openness of the currency market,strengthen the effect of market mechanism on money supply;price stability,in order to avoid high inflation.