Credibility Use For The Outstanding Claims Reserving

In non-life insurance actuarial science reasonable evaluation of outstanding claims reserve funds is a major task of actuarial. The outstanding claims reserve adequacy and accuracy arc important measures of insurance company solvency and profitability indicators. The outstanding claims reserve estimation method is divided into deterministic method and random method. Deterministic methods include chain ladder method, B-F method and case all compensation method etc. Random methods include bayesian method, bootstrap method etc. Because the chain ladder method method of simplicity and its less hypothetical, making it the flow based on the triangle to estimate the outstanding claims reserve one of the most commonly used method. For non-life insurance pending loss reserves, however, the traditional chain ladder method model although have a certain statistical thinking, but not considering the random factors, the historical data of mining is not deep.The claim sample informations only be used in Chain ladder method and the priori information have not been considered to be used. This will lead to the final estimate results of certain error. Information, in order to make full use of the data sample and experience,bayesian method is widely used in non-life insurance in the outstanding claims reserve estimation. However,the bayesian method is difficult to obtain the specific form of probability distribution at most time. Only a few specific distribution can be obtained, but the calculation process is often too complicated or not applicable. And empirical bayesian reliability estimation were first used in premium set estimation being used to estimate the premium which be based on the chain ladder method progress factor information that use a priori information distribution of outstanding claims reserve bayesian model is established, and based on empirical bayes reliability theory on the depth of historical data. At the same time, considering the reliability factors associated progress in progress,so the outstanding claims reserve can be estimated more accurately.