Evaluation Of Accuracy Of Provincial GDP Data Based On Cobb-Douglass Production Function With Variable Coefficients

Since the reform and opening-up policy has been carried out,the rate of economic growth of China is high and of a long duration.Influenced by the global financial crisis in 2008,the economy shifts to slower worldwide,but the rate of China's economic growth is still high.The quality of governmental statistical data is questioned these 20 years,therefore GDP data turns to be the focus in the "new normal" economy.In the "new normal" economy,government mainly readjusts the economic structure,and changes the means of growth,accurate GDP data is the foundation of making macroeconomics policies which are reasonable and reliable,so the quality of GDP data is indeed.Studies are almost about assessment of China's GDP data,while the study about provincial GDP data relatively rare,the methods used are different.Considering the regional difference,economic theory and dynamic development,this paper modifies the Cobb-Douglass production function,makes it show the provincial difference and annual difference of production factors,so that the CD production function with variable coefficients can be used for assessing the provincial GDP data.This paper uses data in 2003-2012 to estimate parameters and analyzes the outcomes of model fitting,assesses the 2003-2012's provincial GDP data's accuracy through the tendency of capital output elastic coefficient and outliner of residual.The elastic coefficients and outliner of residual show that the provincial GDP data roughly corresponds to the development of its economy,the provincial data generally good,and there is the possibility to overestimate GDP of a few provinces in a certain year.So this paper draws a conclusion that provincial GDP data is accurate and reliable.