Research On The Economic Effects Of Regional Free Trade Agreements For China

The number of regional free trade agreements(FTAs)is increasing.Regional economic integration has become a major trend of economic development.China pays great attention to the trade cooperation with other countries,and becomes one of the most important poles in the global FTA net.Concerning the new changes since 2016,China has to rethink the cooperation mode and choose suitable trade partners to promote the economic development of China and the surroundings.Therefore,this paper does the research on the economic effects of possible FTA for China,based on Global Trade Analysis Project(GTAP)model and tariff shock.According to the simulation results,this paper offers feasible policy suggestions for the government.According to the simulation results,1)different FTAs has different influences on China.Sino-U.S.FTA promotes GDP and welfare most,and RCEP has the greatest impact on trade.2)In most cases,the terms of trade of China become worse.3)Compared to other member countries,China gets most trade benefits from these FTAs.4)Compared to the signal FTA,mega FTAs influence the development of Chinese economic and industry more.5)Because of FTAs,the production and trade of agriculture and light industry have been promoted,but of heavy industry and services have been suppressed.6)Whether the TPP contains America has huge difference of economic effects on China.Therefore,this paper suggests that we should not only change the mode of economic growth and stimulate the development of the traditional export industries and service sector,we will also continue to have economic and trade cooperation with the surrounding countries and the world important economies.The innovation of this paper is mainly reflected on the analysis methods and research objects.On one hand,this paper does research on Sino-British FTA and Sino-U.S.FTA,which are not under negotiation but have great possibilities.And with the fact that Trump decided to quit TPP,the research is divided into two scenarios according to whether the United States is included in TPP.On the other hand,this paper adopts comparative analysis method to compare different FTAs.