Study On The Reputation Effect On Analysts' Forecast Accurate

Reputation plays an important role in reducing information asymmetry and providing incentives in the market,it is also an indispensable mechanism to maintain transaction relationship.Securities analysts have more professional analytical capacity than ordinary investors,they are indispensable information communication link between listed companies and investors,can ease the information asymmetry.And the investment report and prediction rating of analysts play an important role in guiding investors.So whether reputation in the capital market has a positive role in the prediction of analysts,or whether with high reputation companies,high reputation brokers and high reputations,analysts have higher earnings forecast accuracy.This paper discusses the influence of reputation on the prediction of capital market analysts,to expand the influencing factors of the analyst's prediction accuracy,and discusses its influence mechanism on the analyst forecast.And provides important proof of the establishment of reputation mechanism,extends the impact of reputation mechanism.This paper researches the effects of company reputation and broker reputation and analysts reputation on analyst forecasts by analysts forecast data of reputation company and sample companies in CSMAR database during 2010-2015.According to the selecting principle of a certain selected high reputation enterprise and contrast,high reputation,high reputation,analysts and brokers and controlled brokerage analysts forecast data,three groups of analysts will be paired sample t-test sample data,it is concluded that significant difference exists among analysts predict error of three group were,then respectively to three groups of data using SPSS for regression,to explore the relationship between the enterprise reputation,underwriter reputation and analyst reputation and other factors and analysts predict accuracy.The research shows that the proportion of high reputation enterprises' positive prediction error is less than the positive prediction error of the contrast enterprise,and the analyst does not make optimistic forecast on high reputation enterprises.The enterprise reputation is inversely proportional to the prediction error,namely the higher enterprise's reputation is,the smaller and more accurate the error of earnings forecast is.The reputation of the brokerage is inversely proportional to the prediction error,in other words,the analyst worked for high brokerage will have a more accurate prediction.The high reputation analyst,as a star analyst,has higher accuracy than the average analysts.In addition,this paper proves the relationship between multiple control variables and the prediction error of the analyst.The higher the proportion of institutional investors,the more the analysts follow,the higher the roe of net assets,the faster the asset growth rate,the nearer the prediction approach disclosure day,the analysts predict are more accurate and less error.The analyst's forecast has bigger error and lower accuracy with the greater volatility of earnings per share.The analyst forecast error is large with enterprise which have an earnings management motivation.Whereas the analyst forecast have higher accuracy while enterprise have no earnings management motivation.