Analysis On Influencing Factors And Regional Difference Of Commercial Housing Price In China

Real estate,is an important industry for consumption and investment.It involves a lot of related industries,and also closely related to China’s national economic development and livelihood issues.The fluctuation of real estate prices is the most direct reflection of real estate development.However,in recent years,there has been a rapid rise in house prices in China,and there is a significant disparity in house price in different regions,which has led to make empirical analysis on price of China’s commercial housing influencing factors and its differences in different regions.Therefore,this paper will study the factors affecting the housing price at the national level and the regional level respectively,while will compare and analyze the influencing factors at the national level and the inward regional level,so as to draw the main conclusions and put forward the corresponding policy suggestions.In the empirical analysis at the national level,the vector autoregressive model is established by using the time series data from 1995 to 2015,and the influencing factors of residential price under the national level are studied by using impulse response function and variance decomposition method.In the empirical analysis which is carried out at the regional level,the panel data of 30 provinces and cities in China(excluding Tibet)from 1995 to 2015 were classified as eastern,central and western regions,which would be used for constructing the panel data model respectively to analyze the influencing factors of house price and its regional differences.Through a comparative study of empirical results between the national level,the regional level,and the inward regional level,the main conclusions are as follows:The level of macroeconomic development is the main factor affecting the price of housing at the national level and the regional level,which has a significant positive effect on the growth of housing prices.At the national level,the biggest factor of residential prices lies in itself,that is,the residential market has historical memory that historical price influence present and future residential market price,and another main factor of rising housing prices is the real rate.At the regional level,the impact of real interest rates is limited,and the house prices expectation in the western region is higher than the eastern and central regions.Income level,urbanization level and population size have a great impact on the national housing prices,and the impact of the region varied according to the regions.The impact of unemployment,real estate investment and fiscal revenue only affects little at the national level,while its influence on housing prices in the eastern,central and western regions is clearly different.Therefore,there are significant regional differences on price factors between the national and regional levels,and also in the eastern,central and western regions.The whole study recommend that the government should improve the control system of regional real estate policy,optimize the model of local government’s fiscal revenue,adjust the land supply volume and publish the real estate information to promote the healthy and stable development of China’s housing market.