| Most of the traditional financial theories focus on the hypothesis of "rational economic man",and have made some achievements.However,with the 1980 s financial market "equity premium puzzle" and "Allais paradox" vision emerging,rational person hypothesis has become more difficult to accept the test of practice,widely questioned by academic circles.The scholars in the question boldly explore and relax the research ideas,and gradually abandon the rational person hypothesis,thus creating the behavioral corporate finance theory.Behavioral corporate finance theory is a huge challenge to the assumption of rational people,It introduces the behavioral science and cognitive psychology to explore the financial behavior of the firm and finds that actors in the decision-making process usually presents overconfidence and risk aversion etc.different cognitive bias,overconfidence is a non rational the behavior and stability of the system,and in the enterprise management is particularly outstanding.The management of the enterprise is in charge of the initiative of the company's operating principles and major decisions.Its cognitive bias will inevitably have an important impact on the development of the company.Some managers because of overconfidence lead the enterprise to create outstanding performance,such as HUAWEI Android,become a leader and Pathfinder 2016 of global ICT with its strategic confidence and strength and other advantages;Alibaba based on its model,institutional and cultural aspects of self-confidence to create a miracle of China's Internet industry.Some managers because of overconfidence make irrational decisions a fatal blow to the enterprise,such as GREE,because of because of its manufacturing and sales ability of overconfidence and the mobile phone market mistaken cognition led to Gree mobile phone bear a huge "trial and error " Cost,facing " die " crisis;Ping An Group with its insurance,banking and investment three core business advantages blindly confident to enter the field of second-hand experience in second-hand car business,after burning 1.4 billion advertising still sadly exit……It can be seen that there is a close relationship between Managerial Overconfidence and corporate performance.Many scholars have explored the relationship between Managerial Overconfidence and corporate performance.Most of the research focuses on corporate investment,mergers and acquisitions,and suggested that overconfident managers tend to overestimate the accuracy of acquired information and the probability of success,too believe their own judgment,which may lead to "excessive investment" and "frequent acquisitions",have a negative impact on corporate performance.But based on the "modern housekeeper" theory of reasoning results said,out of their own dignity,self-achievement and other non-material incentive pursuit,overconfident managers will devote more time and energy to company management,reduce agency costs,to make itself become the company's good“steward”.In addition,overconfidence is to some extent inhibit underinvestment phenomenon,and thus bring positive influence to corporate performance.There is also a part of the study pointed out that the appropriate level of managerial overconfidence can enhance corporate value,but a high level of managerial overconfidence will not be conducive to enterprise value,namely between overconfidence and corporate value is a nonlinear relationship.The reason why the above research has not formed a unified opinion,may be due to different measures of managers overconfidence,or there are some differences in the perspective of analysis.Based on this,this paper attempts to choose debt financing perspective as a starting point,comprehensively analyzes the relationship between managerial overconfidence and corporate performance,and examines the mediating effect of debt financing decision of the two.It can enrich the research of overconfidence,and it has a certain practical significance for managers to correctly understand the impact of their overconfidence on corporate performance and to choose reasonable debt financing decisions to improve corporate performance.This paper selects the financial data of Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share listed companies for the five consecutive years from 2011 to 2015 as the object of study,taking the net interest rate as the measurement of the company's performance,taking the asset-liability ratio and the current liabilities ratio as the alternative to the debt financing decision,taking the executives holdings of the company's stock situation as the measurement to managerial overconfidence,after removing and screening to get the 7,326 sample observations.This paper uses SPSS19.0 software to carry out descriptive statistics,T test,correlation analysis and regression analysis of the selected samples.Finally,it tests the hypothesis proposed and put forward conclusions and suggestions.This paper is divided into six parts.The first part is introduction,this part expounds the background and significance of this research,and briefly explains the research content,framework and research methods of the article,and expects the possible innovation in the article.The second part is literature review,this paper reviews the literature of managerial overconfidence and corporate performance,managerial overconfidence and debt financing decision-making,debt financing decision-making and corporate performance,as well as the relationship of the three,and makes a brief review of the literature.The third part is the theoretical analysis and hypothesis.On the basis of behavioral finance theory and capital structure theory,this paper analyzes how the managerial overconfidence affects corporate performance through debt financing decisions,and the five hypotheses are as follows: H1: managerial overconfidence and corporate performance have a negative correlation;H2: the higher degree of overconfidence,the greater the size of corporate debt financing;H3: the higher degree of overconfidence,the more proportion of short-term debt financing;H4: Debt maturity structure has a mediating role in the relationship between managerial overconfidence and firm performance.H5: Debt maturity structure has a mediating role in the relationship between managerial overconfidence and firm performance.The fourth part is research design,it introduces the sample selection conditions,and selects managerial overconfidence variables,corporate performance variables,debt financing scale variables,debt maturity structure variables and other control variables on the basis of previous studies,and establishes the corresponding regression model.The fifth part is empirical analysis.Firstly,the descriptive statistics of the whole sample variables and the overconfidence variables were conducted to understand the distribution of the samples.Secondly,the independent samples were tested and the hypothesis was verified.Thirdly,through the correlation analysis to verify the correlation between the variables of the preliminary calculation and VIF were judged on multicollinearity;carry on the regression analysis to verify the hypotheses,and the mediating effect test through hierarchical regression analysis.Finally,the selected samples were analyzed by regression analysis to verify whether the proposed hypothesis was established.The sixth part is the conclusions,recommendations and limitations.Firstly,the research results are summarized.Secondly,the paper puts forward some suggestions to improve the corporate governance structure and establish the early warning indicators of overconfidence.Finally,the limitations of this study are summarized.The conclusions of this paper list as follows: There is a significant negative correlation between managerial overconfidence and corporate performance.The higher the degree of overconfidence,the greater the scale of corporate debt financing.the higher the degree of overconfidence,the more proportion of short-term debt financing.The scale of debt financing plays an intermediary role in the relationship between managerial overconfidence and corporate performance,while the debt maturity structure does not. |
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