Research On Regional Load Forecasting In Zhangjiakou With The Integrated Development Of Beijing,Tianjin And Hebei Province

With the booming development of economy and society,electric power industry has been one of the most essential basic industries in nation,and gradually played a more and more role in the progress of economic development.Load forecasting is not only a key guarantee for the stable and accurate operating of the power system,but also the foundation of the power system planning,operating and overhaul.The accuracy of the forecasting results will have an key impact on the economic and social development,network layout and daily life of the residents.Recently,significant progress has been made in the integrated development of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei province,Which calls for more accurate load forecasting results.As a vital city in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,Zhangjiakou,is not only going to co-host 24 th Olympic winter games with Beijing,but also one of the highest green-energy-proportion cities in China,which make the study much more differences.By collecting and analying the GDP growth rate,industrial structure and load characteristics of the Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei province,this paper demonstrates the correlation between the power load of zhangjiakou and the integrated development of beijing,tianjin and hebei province.Using load-area forecasting method,key-industry forecasting method,grey model method and other methods,three load forecasting results are made to compared,analyzed and finally carried out.Concerned with load characteristics and power construction plan of zhangjiakou,some advice are provided for the government and regional electric power operating department.The research shows that the GDP growth rate,R&D work and other indexes of Beijing and Tianjin take the lead in China,while Hebei province is relatively backward.The secondary industrial of hebei is the largest contributor to the economic growth,and the economic growth in the primary and tertiary industries are less.It also reveals a strict positive correlation bewteen the proportion of industrial power and annual maximum load utilization hours.The electricity consumption structure of Zhangjiakou is obviously charecterized by secondary industrial,which can be found in the fact that the proportion of the secondary electricity consumption in total electricity consumption is as high as 68%.It is predicted that both the total electricity consumption and maximum load utilization of zhangjiakou will increase steadily within the next five years,respectively 4.5-5% and 3% per year.Meanwhile,it is also likely to see a significant change in the electricity consumption structure of zhangjiakou.The proportion of primary industry and residential electricity consumption in total electricity consumption nearly remain invariable,while the porportion of secondary will decreased by 10% and tertiary industry will rise to 8%.This paper proposes to conduct research on the grid load forecasting and electric network planning of metropolitan area.In order to promote the prediction accuracy of regional load forecasting,it is quite essential to build up a trans-regional database including meteorological conditions,economic developments,policies and so on.