| Since Exchange Reform in Aug.11,2015,RMB faced devaluation pressure and has continuously devalued.The foreign exchange reserve of our country has decreased nearly 1 trillion dollars.At the same time,the price of real estate in China,however,appeared rapid rise.In Oct.2016,housing price index was 12,825 RMB per square meter,with year-on-year growth of 18.2%.Under the background of consistent devaluation of RMB and rise of real estate price,China faced the challenges included both pressure of capital outflows and excessive rise of real estate.If situation continues to worsen,China may even face exchange and real estate market crisis,and lead to economic recession.According to this,we can provide theoretical support of carrying out relative macroeconomic policy by studying the interactional relationship between RMB exchange rates and the real estate prices.It has important realistic meanings in facing challenges and crisis.This paper carries out theoretical analysis of interactional relationship between RMB exchange rates and real estate prices through two transmission channels,namely international capital flows and domestic money supply.MS-VAR nonlinear model is used to make empirical test of these four in order to make sure the interactional influence of RMB exchange rates and real estate prices through the two transmission channels,and how these channels work.According to theoretical and empirical analysis,here is the conclusion: international capital flow channel and domestic money supply channel both exist,namely RMB exchange rates and real estate prices will influence each other through domestic money supply and short-term international capital flows,and international capital flows will make more impact than domestic money supply.Finally,this paper,based on research results and condition of China,provides policies of exchange regime,currency issue system,cross-border capital monitoring,and real estate supply and demand management for our government. |
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