The Research Of The Rmb Exchange Rate Fluctuations And Relationship Between The Onshore And Offshore Rate

The RMB internationalization is going deeper and the marketization degree of exchange rate is higher and higher.Under this new situation,the yuan against the dollar rate fluctuations is intensifying.Meanwhile the trading volume of RMB offshore foreign exchange market is far more than the onshore transaction.And the mutual influence between the onshore and offshore RMB exchange rate is becoming more and more important.From the beginning of the second half of 2015 the RMB against the U.S dollar rate has a obvious uptrend,which is different from the RMB appreciation pressure before 2015.Therefore,it is very meaningful to study of the RMB exchange rate fluctuation and relationship between onshore rate and offshore rate in the new situation.Firstly,this paper studies the development history and the formation mechanism of RMB foreign exchange onshore market and offshore market.And we can see that there is some relationship between the onshore exchange rate and the offshore exchange rate in recent years.Then it analyzes the main influencing factors and the related models of the exchange rate decision,and the different application to onshore market and offshore market.Based on the different characteristics,it is found that in the onshore market affected by the real economy is relatively large and in the offshore market affected by financial items and arbitrage is relatively large.So the Dombush exchange rate determination model is more suitable for RMB onshore rate and the RMB offshore rate decision is more in line with the asset market model or the random walk model.Secondly,by using the vector autoregression analysis(VAR),the co integration test and vector error correction analysis(VEC),it is verified that there is a fixed proportion relation and some characteristics between the RMB onshore rate and the offshore rate.The onshore rate has a drag effect on the offshore rate,the offshore rate has a predictive rate on the onshore rate.And the onshore exchange rate is still in the dominant position.After that,the paper analyzes the associated channels between onshore and offshore markets under the new situation,the arbitrage influence for dual rate system,and the RMB offshore market development meaning and risk.Based on the arbitrage analysis under dual rate system,the following conclusion can be obtained.When the offshore rate is higher than that of onshore and RMB is the forward premium or when the offshore exchange rate lower than the onshore exchange rate and RMB is forward discount,the arbitrage is not easy to carry out.When the offshore rate is higher than that of onshore and RMB is the forward discount or when the offshore exchange rate lower than the onshore exchange rate and RMB is forward premium,it will strengthen expectations and exchange rate fluctuations.Finally,the paper summarizes the full text,and gives some suggestions from the economic fundamentals and the overall balance.